Budget that braces for tough times


Broad measures spelt out under Budget 2020 will likely sustain the economy, if there is no further escalation in trade fights.

A glimmer of hope emerged after the US outlined the first phase of a deal to settle some issues related to trade, but there is a lingering suspicion that China could be just buying time as it will most likely not concede to any loss of sovereignty.

China is developing its own ecosystem that could be “outside the reach” of the US, and it is possible that the time bought with such rearguard actions may allow China to achieve its aims.

Malaysia, a trade dependent economy, can only hope that it all works out well, if it can integrate into both ecosystems, said Inter-Pacific Securities head of research Pong Teng Siew.

More stimulus measures would be undertaken should the global economy worsen and in the worst case scenario, Malaysia would have room to spend more if it increases the budget deficit, currently at 3.2% of the gross domestic product (GDP).

The worry is that a further deterioration in global trade tensions may push the global economy into recession. If that does not happen, these Budget 2020 measures should be able to sustain the economy, according to RHB Research Institute chief Asean economist Peck Boon Soon.

Given the external headwinds that continue to pose more downside risks, it looks like Budget 2020, which attempts to spread out its positive effects, has been designed to brace for rough times.

Some positive impetus could be derived from measures to support tourism, construction and infrastructure, as well as small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs), said AmBank Research head Anthony Dass.

Tourism-related businesses such as food and beverage, accommodation, travel and transport, shopping and entertainment will likely benefit.

Recognising the importance of SMEs in driving growth, a string of measures to facilitate their financing needs, ease of doing business, faster adoption of high technology and green initiatives, should also bode well.

The bottomline is that resources are limited while the government still aims for fiscal consolidation and repayment of all debts.

Spreading out these scarce resources will probably succeed in paring off any broad-based slowdown, but it will be hard to make a dent when the sense of a loss in economic momentum is gradually settling in, said Pong.

More measures are required to stimulate the economy but in view of the gloomy global outlook and domestic issues, it is still overall, a good budget.

However, the allocation between capital and operating expenditure is still imbalanced; there is too little capital expenditure and there appears to be ‘little effort’ to reduce operating expenditure.

This will have a long term effect, especially in an aging society, according to Areca Capital CEO Danny Wong. In view of concerns over the lack of investments and falling revenue, efforts to boost foreign direct investments and tourism are welcome but more robust steps are required.

A correction in property prices may be a remedy for the overhang and inaffordability issues especially among young people.

The budget tries to forestall a price pullback, which would affect developers stuck with high land prices, by allowing foreigners to fill the demand gap.

But demand has evaporated, partly caused by the migration of mid-level talent and delays in household formation, the driver of long term demand and new home construction. Developers, lulled by the padding of demand through low interest rates for borrowers, high financing margins and easy access to debts, find it hard to lower prices.

They had thought the elevated level of demand was sustainable but it was not. Reduced prices may mean less profits but possibly a lifeline by way of cashflows, and may help restore delays in household formation and loss of talent, said Pong.

A worrying trend is that more and more young Malaysians are moving out of the country in search of jobs.Even mid-level expertise and talent is migrating; previously, it was mostly those who were highly mobile internationally.

A major cause is the lack of growth in real purchasing power.

Is the projected GDP growth of 4.8% achievable?

With the government continuing its spending and development initiatives, growth should remain robust, supported by services and construction, higher production from agriculture and mining. But manufacturing is expected to moderate.

Malaysia can achieve its 4.8% growth target, said Hong Leong Bank chief operating operating officer, global markets, Hor Kwok Wai.

However, in view of slower world GDP growth of 2.8%, AmBank Research expects growth of 4.0% with an upside of 4.3% for Malaysia.

Coming up with a further set of stimulus, should things worsen, may be a challenge.

Columnist Yap Leng Kuen is watchful of the tech war. The views expressed are the writer’s own.

Source link

 

Read more:

 

‘Budget 2020 favours the rich’

 

 


Budget 2020 is a capitalist budget that neglects the poor, says …

 

 

Viewing trade talks progress with rationality, calmness

Ending the trade war benefits whole world

Both China and the US still have resources to sustain a  trade war, but further consumption of those resources is unnecessary  since their goals have proved naive and absurd. The situation is still highly uncertain, but the historical indicators will gradually be corrected. China and the US will not get lost and the world will benefit from the implementation of the consensus reached by the two heads of state, assuming the responsibility to both countries and the world and moving steadily towards the final end of the trade war in stages.

 

Related post 

 

 

 

Advertisements

Malaysia’s Tax Budget 2020 highlights


KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 11): The following are the highlights of Budget 2020:

Malaysian economy

Government

  • The Bureau of Public Complaints will be replaced by the Malaysian Ombudsman to enhance govt’s governance and delivery systems
  • Govt to move forward with the formation of the Independent Police Complaints and Misconduct Commission (IPCMC) to increase public confidence and trust in police.
  • Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) offers to guarantee additional tranche of Samurai bonds with lower interest rate of less than 0.5% compared with 0.63% previously. The federal government plans to issue the bonds early next year. Issuance size to be determined after further discussion with JBIC.
  • Home Ministry to receive RM16.9 billion boost for 2020.
  • Allocation for Islamic affairs under PM’s Dept increased to RM1.3 billion from 1.2 billion in 2019
  • Govt has set up National Committee on Investments (NCI), chaired by Minister of Finance and Minister of International Trade and Industry
  • Allocation for Defence Ministry raised from RM13.9 billion in 2019 to RM15.6 billion in 2020

1MDB

Corporate, finance and fintech

  • Govt will continue to ensure at least 30% of tenders of each ministry are reserved for only Bumiputera contractors
  • 50% matching grant of up to RM5,000 to increase the digitalisation of operations for Malaysian small and medium enterprises (SME)
  • RM50m allocation proposed to encourage SMEs to engage in more export promotion activities
  • Govt to provide extra RM50m for SC’s My Co-Investment Fund (MyCIF) to assist SMEs that have difficulties in getting financing
  • Govt to merge Bank Pembangunan Malaysia, Danajamin Nasional, SME Bank and EXIM Bank Malaysia to restructure development financial institutions (DFI)
  • Govt allocates RM1 billion in investment incentives to attract Fortune Fortune 500 companies and global unicorns
  • Govt to offer special investment incentive package worth RM1b per year for five years to local companies capable of penetrating overseas market
  • Additional RM10m allocation to be set aside for MITI to increase monitoring to ensure approved investments are realised
  • Government evaluating Carey Island development feasibility for next growth phase
  • Govt intends to develop a 100-acre logistics hub at Special Border Economic Zone at Kota Perdana in Bukit Kayu Hitam to strengthen trade relations with Thailand
  • National Fiberisation & Connectivity Plan will adopt public-private partnership approach involving total investment of RM21.6b
  • RM20m allocation for Cradle Fund to train and offer grants to high-impact technology entrepreneurs
  • Licensing for digital banks to be opened for public consultation by year end. A framework is expected to be released in 1H2020
  • Digital bank licensing framework will be finalised by Bank Negara and open for application in the first half of 2020
  • Govt to allocate additional RM50 million to Malaysia Co-Investment Fund (MyCIF) to benefit equity crowdfunding platforms and peer-to-peer (P2P) financing platforms.
  • Ceiling on Market Development Grant (MDG) by Malaysia External Trade Development Corporation (Matrade) raised to RM300,000. Cap on entry to export exhibitions also raised to RM25,000. RM50 million allocated to encourage SMEs to join promotional activities.

Entrepreneur

  • RM445m Bumiputera entrepreneur development grant for access to financing, provision of business premises, entrepreneurship training
  • Govt to provide loans worth RM100m under Small Industries Entrepreneurs Financing Scheme for Chinese community
  • Govt to provide RM20m in loans under entrepreneur development scheme for Indian community
    Govt to allocate RM500m as guaranteed facility for women entrepreneurs via Syarikat Jaminan Pembiayaan Perniagaan Bhd (SJPP)
  • Skim Jaminan Pinjaman Perniagaan will be enhanced, with the government guarantee raised to 80% of the loan amount while the guarantee fee is reduced to 0.75%. A RM500 million guarantee facility has been set aside especially for women entrepreneurs.
  • SME Bank will introduce two new funds: a RM200m fund specially for women entrepreneurs, and a RM300m fund to support SMEs with potential to become regional champs
  • Ministry of Entrepreneur Development to give RM10 million for advisory services and awareness for the halal industry
  • Tax incentives for venture capital and angel investors will be extended until 2023
  • Govt jobs worth RM1.3b dedicated for Bumiputera contractors

Internet and tech

  • Mandatory Standard on Access Pricing (MSAP) has successfully reduced broadband prices by 49% and increased speeds by three times
  • RM250m will be set aside by MCMC to prepare broadband access via satellite technology to increase connectivity in rural Malaysia, especially Sabah and Sarawak
  • Matching grant fund of RM25m will be set aside to encourage more pioneer digital projects that benefit fibre optic infrastructure and 5G
  • RM20m allocated to MDEC to groom local champions in producing digital content
  • RM50 million grant to develop 5G ecosystem to prepare for  5G transformation worldwide
  • Smart automation matching grant (up to RM2m) for 1,000 local manufacturers and 1,000 services companies to automate business processes
  • To boost use of e-wallets, govt to offer one-time RM30 digital stimulus to qualified Malaysians aged 18 and above with annual income less than RM100,000
  • 14 one-stop digital improvement centres to be set up in every state to faciltiate access to financing, development of business capacity
  • RM10m to be set aside for MDEC to train micro-digital entrepreneurs and technology experts to leverage e-market places, social media platforms
  • Digital Social Responsibility (DSR) is commitment from business sector to enhance workforce with digital skills needed by society. Contributions from the private sector to the DSR will be given tax
  • R&D in public sector to be intensified with RM524 million allocation to ministries, public agencies exemptions.
  • Government to up e-sports allocation to RM20m due to high potential
  • Green Investment Tax Allowance (GITA) and Green Investment Tax Exemptions (GITE) extended to 2023 in line with sustainable development

Palm oil

  • Govt has launched palm oil replanting loan fund worth RM550m for smallholders
  • Govt to implement B20 biodiesel for the transport sector by end-2020. This is expected to increase palm oil demand by 500,000 tonnes per annum.

Rubber

  • RM200m set aside for ‘Bantuan Musim Tengkujuh’ to eligible rubber smallholders under RISDA, Lembaga Industri Getah Sabah
  • RM100 million allocated for Rubber Production Incentive in 2020 to enhance income of smallholders faced with low rubber prices

Agriculture

  • Allocation for Agriculture and Agro-based Industry Ministry increased to RM4.9 billion, including RM150 million to support plant integration programmes such as for chilli, pineapple, coconut, watermelon and bamboo.
  • RM855 million allocation under Federal Government Padi Fertilizer Scheme to boost padi yield

Civil servants

  • Civil servants’ emoluments to exceed RM82 billion
  • Civil servant pension will cost RM27.1 billion
  • Civil servants’ cost of living allowance or COLA to be raised by RM50 a month starting 2020 for support group, with an additional RM350 million a year
  • Civil servants will be allowed early redemption of accumulated leaves (gantian cuti rehat) for up to 75 days as replacement pay for those who have served at least 15 years
  • Govt announces RM500 special payment for civil servants Grade 56 and below. Govt retirees to get special payment of RM250, also extended to non-pensionable veterans
  • Govt to allocate RM330 million to the Property and Land Management Division under the Prime Ministers Department to repair and maintain the public service quarters. Meanwhile, RM150 million and RM250 million is set aside to repair and refurbish Malaysian Armed Forces family housing units (RKAT) and PDRM quarters.
  • Fire fighters to get a special allowance of RM200 a month, which will benefit 14,400 personnel under the Fire and Rescue Dept, amounting to RM35 mil.

Highway and tolls

  • The Cabinet has approved the proposed offer to acquire four highways in the Klang Valleyy – Shah Alam Expressway (KESAS), Damansara-Puchong Expressway (LDP), Sprint Expressway (SPRINT) and SMART Tunnel (SMART) to be funded via Government-guaranteed borrowings.
  • Citizens to enjoy average 18% discount on all PLUS highways
  • Effective Jan 1, 2020, toll rates for cars at the Second Penang Bridge will be reduced from RM8.50 to RM7.00.

Public transport

  • RM450 million proposed to acquire up to 500 electric buses for public transport in selected cities nationwide
  • Govt intends to proceed with the Rapid Transit System (RTS) between Johor Bahru and Singapore.
  • It will also invest RM85 million beginning 2020 to ease congestion at the Causeway and 2nd Link by enhancing vehicle and traffic flow through the Customs, Immigration and Quarantine Complex.

Fuel subsidy

  • Individuals owning not more than two cars and two motorcycles can get fuel subsidy for one vehicle. The qualifying criteria are:
    • A passenger car with 1,600cc engine capacity and below, or
    • Any car above 1,600cc must be more than 10 years old, or
    • A qualified motorcycle must be 150cc and below, or
    • Any motorcycles above 150cc must be more than 7 years old.

 

  • From January 2020, the targeted fuel subsidy or PSP will be launched in Peninsular Malaysia with two eligible categories as follows:
    • For eligible recipients of the BSH, the petrol subsidy receivable will be RM30 per month for car owners and RM12 per month for motorcycle owners. This subsidy will be in the form of cash transfer, deposited into the recipient’s bank account every 4 months. The first payment will be made in April 2020 for the period January to April 2020; and
    • For all other motorists who are not BSH recipients, they will receive a special Kad95 which allows them to enjoy the fuel subsidy at a discount of 30 sen per litre limited to 100 litres per month for cars or 40 litres per month for motorcycles when purchasing RON95 at the petrol station. The Kad95 will be implemented progressively during the first quarter of 2020.

Taxes

  • Govt will merge Special Commissioner of Income Tax and Customs Appeal Tribunal into the Tax Appeal Tribunal, to be operational in 2021. Through this, taxpayers unhappy with the decision of IRB director-general or the Customs D-G can appeal
  • Govt proposes that a new band for taxable income in excess of RM2 million be introduced and taxed at 30%, up 2 percentage point from the current 28%. This will affect approximately 2,000 top income earners in the country.
  • Govt has repaid GST refunds amounting to RM15.9b to more than 78,000 companies, and income tax refunds of RM13.6b to 448,000 companies and 184,000 taxpayers

Medical and Healthcare

  • To support local medical device industry, government will introduce an initiative to encourage local producers to upgrade equipment and tools used in public clinics and hospitals, based on a minimum allocation of 30%.
  • RM227m to be set aside to upgrade medical equipment, and RM95m to renovate infrastructure and medical facilities, like in Hospital Pontian
  • RM1.6 billion to build new hospitals and upgrade existing ones. The hospital includes Tengku Ampuan Rahimah Klang, Hospital Kampar, Hospital Labuan and the Queen Elizabeth II Hospital, Sabah Heart Centre.
  • Govt to allocate RM60m for pneumococcal vaccination for all children
  • RM319m to build and upgrade health and dental clinics and quarters facilities; new clinics will be built in Setiu, Sg Petani, and Cameron Highlands, as well as Kudat and Tawau in Sabah, and Lon San and Sg Simunjan in Sarawak
  • Health Ministry to get RM30.6 billion allocation, compared to RM28.7 billion under Budget 2019

MySalam

  • MySalam to be expanded so that those with critical illnesses will get RM8,000 cash; those being treated in govt hospitals can also claim RM50 wage replacement a day for up to 14 days

Islamic finance

  • Islamic Economic Blueprint to be formulated to position Malaysia as centre of excellence for Islamic finance
  • Special Islamic Finance Committee to be set up to develop the Islamic finance ecosystem

FELDA

Property and housing

  • RPGT base year for asset purchase revised to Jan 1, 2013 for asset acquired before that date
  • To reduce supply overhang of condominiums and apartments amounting to RM8.3 billion in the second quarter of 2019, govt will lower the threshold on high rise property prices in urban areas for foreign ownership from RM1 million to RM600,000 in 2020.
  • Govt to extend Youth Housing Scheme administered by Bank Simpanan Nasional from Jan 1, 2020 until Dec 31, 2021. The scheme also offers a 10% loan guarantee via Cagamas to enable borrowers to get full financing and RM200 monthly instalment assistance for the first two years, limited to 10,000 home units.
  • Public Sector Home Financing Board to offer free personal accident insurance for up to two years to new government housing loan borrowers
  • To help those who can’t come up with 10% deposit or get financing to buy homes, govt will collaborate with financial institutions to introduce the rent-to-own (RTO) financing scheme, where up to RM10 billion will be provided by the financial institutions, with the governnment supporting via a 30% or RM3 billion guarantee.
    • This RTO scheme is for purchase of first home up to RM500,000 property price.
    • Under this scheme, the applicant will rent the property for up to 5 years and after the first year, and the tenant will have the option to purchase the house based on the price fixed at the time the tenancy agreement is signed.

Gaming Industry

  • To curb illegal gambling, govt proposes a higher minimum mandatory penalty of RM100,000 for illegal gamblers, along with a minimum mandatory jail sentence of six months.
    • For illegal operators, a higher minimum mandatory penalty of RM1 million and a 12 month minimum mandatory jail sentence will be imposed.
  • To curb illegal gambling, govt proposes a higher minimum mandatory penalty of RM100,000 for illegal gamblers, along with a minimum mandatory jail sentence of six months.
  • Starting 2020, total number of special draws for Numbers Forecast Operator (NFO) will be reduced from 11 to 8 times a year..

 

Employment

  • Hiring fresh graduates: Two-year pay incentives of RM500 a month. Hiring incentive of RM300 a month.
  • Incentives to get women into the workforce:
    • Two-year pay incentive of RM500 a month
    • Hiring incentive of RM300
    • Tax exemption for women returning to work will be extended until 2023.
  • Govt revises Employment Act, including increasing maternity leave from 60 days to 90 days from 2021
  • Govt proposes to raise minimum wage in urban areas to RM1,200 a month in 2020
  • Govt to launch Malaysians @ Work initiative aimed at creating better employment opportunities for youth and women, reducing over-dependence on low-skilled foreign workers
  • Malaysians who replace foreign workers will get a monthly wage incentive of RM350/RM500 for two years, depending on the sector. Employers will get a monthly incentive of RM250 a month throughout the same period.

Tourism

  • RM25 million allocated to Malaysia Healthcare Tourism Council to strengthen Malaysia’s position as the preferred destination for medical tourism in Asean for oncology, cardiology and fertility treatments.
  • Govt to contribute RM100 million towards construction of new cable car system to Penang Hill
  • RM1.1 billion allocated to Ministry of Tourism and Culture, of which RM90 million is specifically for VMY2020 promotion and programmes

Sabah and Sarawak

  • Govt plans to double special alowance for Sabah to RM53.4m and Sarawak to RM32m; this to be doubled further to 106.8m for Sabah and RM64m for Sarawak in five years
  • RM587 million allocation for rural water projects, of which RM470 million will be for Sabah and Sarawak
  • RM500 million for rural electrification benefiting more than 30,000 rural households, majority in Sabah and Sarawak

Aid and subsidies

  1. Govt to spend RM24.2 billion on subsidies and social assistance
  2. RM100 million grant proposed for Malaysian Indian Transformation Unit (MITRA) of which 80% will be programme-based
  3. RM57 million provided to Orang Asli Development Department (JAKOA), in addition to RM83 million allocation for the community’s economic development, education and infrastructure.
  4. RM575 million proposed for socio-economic assistance to senior citizens benefiting 137,000 seniors whose household income is below poverty level
  5. RM25 million allocated to manage, administer and expand food bank programme
  6. Allocation for subsidies and social assistance increased to RM24.2 billion, including welfare aid such as Bantuan Sara Hidup (BSH). BSH scheme expanded to cover 1.1 million single individuals aged above 40 earning less than RM2,000 per month.

Rural development

  • RM10.9 billion allocated for rural development projects in 2020, from RM9.7 billion in 2019
  • RM738 million provided for Risda and Felcra to implement income generating programme
  • RM1 billion set aside for rural roads throughout Malaysia, primarily targeted at Sabah and Sarawak

Education and training

  • Allowance for KAFA teachers increased by RM100 a month, to benefit 33,200 existing teachers
  • RM735 million proposed for school maintenance and upgrading works
  • Government allocates RM210m to expedite digital infrastructure establishment in public buildings like schools
  • Education Ministry to receive largest allocation of  of RM64.1 billion in 2020 from RM60.2 billion in 2019
  • Allocation for TVET programmes raised from RM5.7 billion in 2019 to RM5.9 billion in 2020
  • RM1.3 billion proposed for education institutions under MARA, a further RM2 billion for student loans benefitting 50,000 students

Source link

 

Read more:

An opportunity to right the wrong

 

MySalam’s coverage slammed

 

Government will not give citizenship to foreigners just for buying RM600,000 worth of property – PM

 

Budget 2020: Neutral to mildly positive on KLCI

 

Tax incentives set to benefit solar players

 

Dr Wee: Where is the matching grant for TAR UC?

 

 

Give up control of Utar, TAR UC to get RM30 mil funding, Lim …

 

Budget 2020 seeks to change economic landscape

 

Malaysia’s Budget 2020 strikes a prudent balance

 

 

What Malaysia’s banking chiefs say about Budget 2020

 

 

 

Full Budget 2020 speech

 

 

Budget 2020 not able to stimulate economy, Najib says 

 

Relaed post:

 

Malaysia’s Budget 2019: Making the tiger roar again in 3 years

China in the Asian century, Is the future truly Asian?



As China continues to develop, so does its global influence. What would the future be like for South-East Asia with a ‘risen China’?

Rising together: No, Chinese imperialism is not simply replacing US imperialism, as China emphasises win-win partnerships, says Prof Zhang. — Handout

 

China in the Asian century

PROF Zhang Weiwei is among the most respected scholars in China today. He is a leading expert on China’s “reform and opening up” policies and its status as a “civilisational state.”

As director of the China Institute at Shanghai’s elite Fudan University, he is also professor of International Relations and had served as English interpreter for China’s Paramount Leader Deng Xiaoping. In an exclusive interview earlier in the week, Prof Zhang spoke to Sunday Star about future prospects with China.

As the leading authority on China’s civilisational state, how would you define it, as distinct from a nation state?

With China, it’s a combination of the world’s longest continuous civilisation and a super-large modern state. A civilisational state is made up of hundreds of states amalgamated into one large state.

China is a modern state respecting international law like a nation state, but culturally diverse, with sovereignty and territorial integrity.

There are four features of China’s civilisational state: a super-large population of 1.4 billion people, a continent-size territory, significant culture, and a long history.

If we are returning to an East Asian tributary system, what changes can we expect in China’s policies in this region today?

The tributary system is a Western name for China’s relations in this region (in the past). China is a “civilisational” – as an adjective – state, a modern amalgamation of many (component communities).

During the Ming Dynasty, China was a world power – but as a civilizational state more than a nation state – and did not seek to colonize other countries, unlike Western powers that were nation states. Since then, China’s status and capacity as a nation state has grown significantly. Will it then become more like Western powers now?
China today is a nation state, but different from European (nation) states. It is also still a civilisational state.

The Chinese people are not just Han, although the Han majority is 92%. There are 56 ethnic groups in China, (mostly) minorities.

But China rejected the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling on the South China Sea, initiated by the Philippines, which found China’s claims insupportable.

The tribunal was illegal; it had no right to make such decisions. The Permanent Court of Arbitration is not part of the United Nations.

How can countries in South-East Asia be convinced that the rise of China will not simply result in Chinese imperialism replacing US imperialism?

China emphasises win-win partnerships, such as in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It encourages discovering, building, and benefiting together.

Countries in South-East Asia join the BRI out of their own interest. It is not something imposed by China.

Some countries have described the Second Belt and Road Summit this year as being more consultative than the first. As for the future?

The future Belt and Road Summits will be even more open and consultative.

Is the current US-China trade dispute only a symptom of much larger differences, such as a historic divide in the reshaping of a new global order?

It is more than about trade. With the United States especially, it is zero-sum, but for China it is win-win.

The Chinese economy is larger than the US economy, or soon will be. (In PPP or purchasing power parity terms, China’s economy grew larger than the US economy in 2014.)

The United States is trying to decouple its economy from China’s. How can China ensure that it would not only withstand these efforts but also triumph?

The attempt to decouple the two economies will fail. About 85% of US companies that are already in China want to stay.

Looking at the trade structure, most Chinese exports to the US are irreplaceable. No other place in the world gives a better price-quality ratio in manufactured goods.

So the US cannot win in this decoupling because there are no alternatives (as desirable producing countries). China has the world’s largest chain or network, or factory clusters, for all kinds of goods.

How likely do you see a hot war – more than a trade war or a cold war – breaking out between a rising China and what is perceived to be a declining United States?

The US knows that it won’t win (a hot war). No two nuclear-armed countries will go to war. It would be very messy.

So far no two nuclear-armed countries have fought. There may be a small likelihood of direct confrontation, but not a war situation.

No commercial shipping has been interrupted by China. So the US need not worry.

Can Asean, or an Asean country like Malaysia, help to bring the United States and China closer together as partners rather than as rivals?

Possibly. Malaysia perhaps can help, as it is friendly to both China and the US.

As China continues in its rise, what steps is it taking to provide for more cooperative and consultative relations in this region?

Trade between China and Asean countries, for example, has grown, and has now exceeded China-US trade.

Generally, China’s relations with Asean countries are quite promising, with Free Trade Area relationships as well.

By Bunn Nagara, who is Senior Fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia.

Source link

Poised for growth: Shipping containers sit stacked next to gantry cranes at the Yantian International Container Terminals in Shenzhen, China. — Bloomberg

 

Is the future truly Asian?

The Region, while growing fast, faces issues such as youth joblessness, climate change and income gaps

THIS is a question that is at the heart of the tensions across the Pacific.

To Parag Khanna, author of The Future Is Asian (2019), the answer is almost self-evident.

However, if you read his book carefully, you will find that he thinks global power will be shared between Asian and Western civilisations

For the West, the rise of Asia has been frighteningly fast, because as late as 1960, most of Asia was poor, agricultural and rural, with an average income per capita of less than US$1,000 in 2010 prices.

But 50 years on, Asia has become more urban and industrialised, and is becoming a challenge to the West in terms of trade, income and innovation.

Global management consulting firm McKinsey has just published a study on “The Future is Asian” that highlights many aspects why Asia is both attractive to businessmen and yet feared as a competitor.

Conventionally, excluding the Middle East and Iran, Asia is divided into North-East Asia (China, Japan and South Korea), South-East Asia (mostly Asean), South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh) and Central Asia.

But McKinsey has identified at least four Asias that are quite complementary to each other.

First, there is Advanced Asia, comprising Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and Singapore, each with per capita incomes exceeding US$30,000 (RM125,600), highly urbanised and rich, with a combined GDP that is 10% of global GDP.

This group provides technology, capital and markets for the rest of Asia, but it is ageing fast.

Second, China is the world’s largest trading economy, second largest in GDP after the United States, and a growing consumer powerhouse. By 2030, the Chinese consumer market will be equal to Western Europe and the United States combined.

China is also an increasing capital provider to the rest of the world.

Third, the 11 countries of Emerging Asia (Asean plus Bhutan and Nepal, excluding Singapore) have young populations, fast growth and cultural diversity.

Fourth, Frontier Asia and India – covering essentially South and Central Asia including Afghanistan – which have 1.8 billion in population, still rural but young.

Taken together, these four Asias today account for one-third of global GDP and 40% of the world’s middle class.

But what is remarkable is that while the region grew from trading with the rest of the world, intra-regional trade has grown faster, to 60% of total trade, with intra-regional foreign direct investment (FDI) at 66% of total inward FDI, and 74% of air traffic.

Much of Asian growth will come from rapid urbanisation, amid growing connectivity with each other. The top 20 cities in Asia will be mega conglomerates that are among the largest cities in the world with the fastest-growing income.

A major finding is that America First-style protectionism is helping to intensify the localisation and regionalisation of intra-regional connectivity in terms of trade, finance, knowledge and cultural networks.

Furthermore, the traditional savings surpluses in Asia basically went to London and New York and were recycled back in terms of foreign direct investment and portfolio flows.

But no longer.

Increasingly, Asian financial centres are emerging to compete to re-pump surplus capital from Advanced Asia and China to fund the growth in Emerging and Frontier Asia.

In short, intra-regional finance is following intra-regional trade.

In a multipolar world, no one wants to be completely dependent on any single player but prefers network connectivity to other cities and centres of activity and creativity.

As Khanna puts it: “The phrase ‘China-led Asia’ is thus no more acceptable to most Asians than the notion of a ‘US-led West’ is to Europeans.”

But are such rosy growth prospects in Asia predestined or ordained?

Based on the trajectory of demographic growth of half the world’s young population moving into middle income, the logical answer appears to be yes.

But there are at least three major bumps in that trajectory.

First, Asia, like the rest of the world, is highly vulnerable to global warming.

Large populations with faster growth mean more energy consumption, carbon emissions and natural resource degradation. Large chunks of Asia will be vulnerable to more water, food and energy stresses, as well as natural disasters (rising seas, forest fires, pandemics, typhoons, etc).

Second, even though more Asians have been lifted out of poverty, domestic inequality of income and wealth has increased in the last 20 years.

Part of this is caused by rural-urban disparities, and widening gaps in high-value knowledge and skills. Without adequate social safety nets, healthcare and social security, dissatisfaction over youth unemployment, access to housing, and deafness to problems by bureaucracies has erupted in protests everywhere.

Third, geopolitical rivalry has meant that there will be tensions between diverse Asia over territorial, cultural and religious differences that can rapidly escalate into conflict. The region is beginning to spend more on armaments and defence instead of focusing on alleviating poverty and addressing the common threat of climate change.

Two generational leaders from the West have approached these threats from very different angles.

Addressing the United Nations, 16-year-old Swedish schoolgirl Greta Thunberg dramatically shamed the older generation for its lack of action on climate change.

“People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are at the beginning of a mass extinction and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you, ” she said.

The young are idealistically appealing for unity in action against a common fate.

In contrast, addressing the UN Security Council, US President Donald Trump was arguing the case for patriotism as a solution to global issues. Climate change was not mentioned at all.

Since the older generation created most of the carbon emissions in the first place, no wonder the young are asking why they are inheriting all the problems that the old deny.

This then is the difference in passion between generations.

Globalisation occurred because of increasing flows of trade, finance, data and people. That is not stoppable by patriot-protected borders.

A multipolar Asia within a multipolar world means that even America First, however strong, will have to work with everyone, despite differences in worldviews.

All patriots will have to remember that it is the richness of diversity that keeps the world in balance.

The writer ANDREW SHENG is a distinguished fellow with the Asia Global Institute at the University of Hong Kong. This article is part of the Asian Editors Circle series, a weekly commentary by editors from the Asia News Network, an alliance of 24 news media titles across the region.

Source link
 Read more:

China in the Asian century – Chinadaily

 

 

 Related posts:

NO POWER, NO FORCE CAN STOP THE PROGRESS OF THE CHINESE PEOPLE AND NATION


https://youtu.be/Uv0PeiGWJyg

Xi addresses grand rally to celebrate PRC’s 70th founding anniversary

DF 17, DF 100 & DF 41 make debuts at National Day parade

The Strategic Attack Formation is one of the most anticipated parts of Tuesday’s military parade, as the DF-17, CJ-100, and DF-41 missiles made their first appearances. DF-17 conventional missiles are used for precision strikes against medium-and-close targets. The hypersonic CJ-100, on the other hand, is the latest cruise missile of the CJ family, and can strike long-range targets. Lastly, the DF-41 has gained worldwide attention. The purpose of the DF-41 intercontinental strategic nuclear missile is for balancing power and securing victory. Other equipment being showcased includes the second-generation JL-2 long-range ballistic missiles, solid-fuel DF-31 nuclear missiles and DF-5B nuclear missiles, which can carry multiple warheads and excel at both assault and defense. #70YearsOn #NationalDay2019 #PRC70

New Aircrafts Make Debut at China’s National Day Parade

https://youtu.be/NxwEB7CYVtE >
China’s new-generation main battlefield tanks reviewed in National Day parade https://youtu.be/SdI90NK2ntg

Marking 70 years of greatness

15 military units march in China’s largest National Day parade

This is how we welcome China’s 70th birthday

The moments that matter to modern China: Beijing and beyond 5/5

Perception vs reality as New China turns 70


China’s 70th National Day: No force can stop country’s progress, says Xi Jinping

BEIJING – China held its largest display of military force with a parade along its main Chang’an Avenue as the nation celebrated 70 years of communist rule.

Under hazy skies on Tuesday morning (Oct 1), President Xi Jinping, in a Mao suit and flanked by his two precedessors, former presidents Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, appeared on Tiananmen, or Gate of Heavenly Peace.

Addressing the nation, President Xi spoke of how Chinese Communist Party leader Mao Zedong had stood in the same spot 70 years ago and declared the founding of the People’s Republic of China, paving the way for the country to embark on the path of the “great rejuvenation” of China.

“No power can shake the status of our great motherland, no force can stop the progress of the Chinese people and nation,” he said, to cheers from the thousands of flag-waving Chinese who had gathered at Tiananmen Square.

An aerial display welcomed by wild cheers from the audience
Unlisted

Mr Xi urged loyalty to the Communist Party’s leadership and again vowed that Beijing will abide by the “one country, two systems”  model to ensure Hong Kong and Macau’s continued prosperity, as well as promote the peaceful development of cross-strait relations.

“Yesterday’s China has been written into the history books. Today’s China is being created by more than one billion people. Tomorrow’s China will be even better,” he said, urging unity and the fulfilment of the two centennial goals.

The Chinese leader had vowed to restore the country to greatness – by making China a “moderately prosperous society” by 2021, and for it to become a “fully developed, rich and powerful nation” by 2049.

These two centennial goals – 2021 marks 100 years since the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and 2049, the centenary of the founding of PRC – have been Mr Xi’s overarching vision since he took power in 2012.

The celebrations on Tuesday culminate in a gala show in the evening complete with fireworks.

The display of China’s military might in the morning was a picture of pride for the Chinese audience.

“I had taken taken part in one of the dress rehearsals for the parade and even then it was a stirring sight to see the Chinese military. Today’s atmosphere feels even better,” said civil servant Li Yidong, 27, adding that the showcase “is also a window to show the world China’s national power”.

Mr Li Xuguang, 29, who works in the security industry, said he was already very excited when planes flew past his home during the parade in 2015 to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II.

“Watching them today is even better,” said Mr Li.

Source link

Related:

While Hong Kong is sick, Macao is getting healthier

While Hong Kong is struggling from months of violent street protests, events in Macao, another special administrative region of China, are quickly leading the Greater Bay Area to new heights — from medicine to regional economic and cultural cooperation.

 

Live: Grand celebration honoring 70th anniversary of PRC’s founding 庆祝中华人民共和国成立70周年


https://youtu.be/X_Z9QE4EblY

Highlights: China celebrates 70th anniversary with biggest ever military parade

Square on October 1, the National Day, to mark the 70th founding anniversary of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). For the mass parade, 100,000 people and 70 sets of flower-festooned floats form 36 formations. The mass parade lasts 65 minutes. The military parade showcases China’s achievements in building its national defense and armed forces in the past 70 years and reflects the outcomes of the reform of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). #PRC70 #NationalDay2019 #70YearsThriving

 


A Changing China: 70 Years On | Correspondents’ Diary | Full Episode

Grand celebration shows peaceful intent, unity of Chinese society

China reveals its most advanced nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile, the DF-41, at the National Day parade in Beijing on October 1, 2019. Photo: Fan Lingzhi/GT

A celebratory event, including a military parade, marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was held on Tuesday morning at Tiananmen Square in Beijing. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, also Chinese president and chairman of the Central Military Commission, delivered an important speech and inspected the troops of the People’s Liberation Army in the parade.

The most eye-catching part of the celebration was the military parade, including the debut of military hardware such as 16 DF-41 ICBM, which has attracted world attention. The celebration of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the PRC has showcased the extraordinary image of China in the new era.

China is a united and cohesive country with outstanding organizational ability. Such a spectacle, including the parade, is a super project and tests the comprehensive capabilities of the country. Strong technical support and comprehensive coordination capability are required. The one held in Beijing is a microcosm of celebrations across China.

This year is unusual. In view of the ongoing trade war that has lasted over a year and a half and continuous riots in Hong Kong, some external forces want to make China a subject of ridicule. However, Chinese society hasn’t divided but has become more united. The unprecedented, grand celebrations have brought more joy to the Chinese people. It will further boost the confidence of the people and pale the voices of some external forces.

China has become stronger, including the country’s national defense capabilities. The debut of DF-41, 16 of which participating in the military parade, indicates it has been in full service. Western analysts generally believe that DF-41 is a multiple-warhead-capable, solid-fuel and road-mobile ICBM with a range long enough to hit any target on Earth. It’s an advanced nuclear strike force. DF-41 and the JL-2 will raise China’s nuclear deterrent capabilities to a new level.

China’s national defense capabilities have been progressing in line with the country’s technological and economic strength — something expected of a major power. If one country only focuses on economy and drags its feet on defense, it will inevitably fuel external hostilities and ambitions. China should ensure a balanced development. A strong military is conducive to deterring external forces.

China cherishes peace. Grand military parade is meant to enhance military transparency, not to flex muscles or coerce. Military hardware including DF-41 haven’t been unveiled publicly until they are already in service. The restraint is rare in the world.

It is worth mentioning that all the nuclear weapons displayed by China will not be used in pre-emptive strategic strikes, or to threaten non-nuclear nations. China is the only nuclear power that declares no-first-use nuclear policy. The firm policy will be applied to all of China’s nuclear weapons.

China has firm strategic planning, which won’t be disrupted by temporary factors. Western media outlets, in analyzing 70th founding anniversary celebrations of the PRC, tend to list temporary factors as if the scale and level of this year’s military parade is designed for those factors. China traditionally celebrates founding anniversaries every 10 years. Displaying new weaponry is also a tradition.

China is marching forward steadily despite the ups and downs in 70 years. The military parade in the morning and grand gala in the evening will show China’s new image, which we believe will bring positive energy and influence to a complicated world.

Source link

 

RELATED ARTICLES:

 

Read more:  

Walk together, walk far | The Star Online

Related posts

China’s October Revolution – a parade of strength and pride to show country’s ability to maintain peace

China’s October Revolution – a parade of strength and pride to show country’s ability to maintain peace


China to hold its largest military parade, boasting new weapons and equipment at its anniversary

EVERYTHING is set and China is ready to display its military strength at the 70th anniversary celebrations.

Tomorrow, all eyes will be on this next super power when the military parade march along the Changan Road and pass the Tiananmen Square in the capital city of Beijing.

This will be the 15th time a national day military parade will take place since the formation of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.

The last time such an event was held was 10 years ago.

“This is no ordinary parade, it is a parade of strength, confidence and pride, ” a senior editor of a local daily said proudly.

But I confessed that I barely have any knowledge on defence matters and am quite clueless on weapons.

“A country has to be stable and strong in economy so that its people can live in peace and prosperity.

“And in order to achieve this, one has to be strong in defence, ” explained the editor I had a chat with during an assignment recently.

I can understand how he feels. After all, China has for a long time felt bullied and ripped-off by the powerful countries in the past.

“This is also an important moment to instil confidence in the people, telling them that they no longer have to worry about the nightmare they have suffered, ” he said.

The scale of this military parade would be the largest so far, said Cai Zhijun, deputy head of the office of the leading group for the event.

“There will be 59 formations and a military band. More than 160 aircraft and 580 pieces of equipment will be showcased at the parade, ” he told a press conference recently.

A senior People’s Liberation Army officer told Xinhua that a selection of new weapons would be featured at the parade.

“All the weapons and equipment are domestic and in active service with a high level of information technology application and better strike accuracy, said another army officer.

A total of 188 military attaches from 97 countries stationed in China have been invited to watch the parade.

Chinese National Defence Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian said at the country’s first military parade 70 years ago, they were short of aircraft.

“We only had 17 then. Premier Zhou (Enlai) said not enough aircraft, then we fly two times. And now, we have become strong and our aircraft no longer need to fly two rounds. We are relieved to tell the martyrs that such peace and prosperous era is what you all had wished to see, ” he said.

Wu also refuted allegations of China flexing its muscles at the parade.

“Over the last decades, China has made great contributions to the world. The stronger the country is, the greater constructive role we will play in keeping world peace, ” he added.

A total of 15,000 military personnel, aged between 20 and 70, will be taking part in the parade. They are the best of the best, shortlisted after rounds of screening.

I was lucky enough to visit an army camp and see the training session of the foot formations, comprising members from the guards of honour, soldiers, navy, air force servicewomen, reserve forces, peacekeepers and other divisions.

The male personnel have a height between 1.75m and 1.9m while the females are between 1.63m and 1.75m.

One of them is Guo Fengtong, 29. “It is a great honour to be able to participate in the event. For this, we trained extra hard with one goal and hope we are able to show our best at the national day parade, ” he said.

A member of the guards of honour division, Guo has pledged his service to the armed forces for 14 years. And his most unforgettable duty took place at the Beijing Olympics 2008.

“I was part of the flag detail to raise the Five-Star Red Flag at the opening ceremony but I had a blister and infection on my foot 12 days before the event.

“I was quite depressed then because I had trained for so long for the moment and worried that the whole process would be affected by me. Luckily I managed to recover and we completed our task perfectly, ” he added.

Ma Yanfei, 23, said she has been dreaming of becoming a guard of honour after seeing them on duty.

“They appeared very smart, strong and brave to me. So, when I was recruited into the armed forces seven years ago, I applied to join the division.

“I feel proud because we carry the image of the force as well as the country, ” she added.

Source link

Military parade seeks to show country’s ability to maintain peace

Chinese soldiers practice in Beijing on September 25, ahead of a military parade on October 1 to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Photo: IC

The upcoming October 1 National Day parade, in which China’s armed forces will join with advanced military equipment and missiles, has triple meanings.

First, it celebrates the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Since 1949, the military parade is held on a smaller scale every five years and as a grand spectacle every 10 years. Thus, the parade this year is expected to be huge.

Second, China has vowed to complete military reform and has armed forces capable of informationized warfare by 2020. The outcome of China’s military reform would likely show up at the momentous event and will find expression on Changan Avenue.

Third, after seven decades of unremitting efforts, the equipment of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been greatly improved. The parade will show China’s nationalized equipment system and combat capability – the PLA’s general combat capability has developed rapidly. By the time China accomplishes its military reform in 2020, the PLA’s combat capability would have taken a huge leap. Thus, the military parade will also be a show of China’s developing military equipment.

Many people are eager to know if new weaponry and equipment will be unveiled at the parade. There is more curiosity about the types of missiles that will be brought out of the PLA arsenal. People will also pay attention to the real combat capability of the PLA Rocket Force and the PLA Strategic Support Force. Because there have been systematic adjustments, people will focus on the foot formations of the marching columns.

There is no doubt that China will show its nuclear capability to the world at the event. But such a show is not meant to target any country. China’s nuclear weapons will not pose a direct threat to other countries. It has promised not to be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time or under any circumstances.

Thus, no matter how advanced China’s nuclear weapons are, they will only be used as strategic deterrents. But if other countries dare to use nuclear weapons against China, Beijing will be able to launch a nuclear counterattack. The US, Russia and China are all developing the nuclear triad structure – a three-pronged military force structure that consists of land-launched nuclear missiles, nuclear-missile-armed submarines and strategic aircraft with nuclear bombs and missiles. China is catching up with the US and Russia in this respect and this has become an important basis of the country’s national security.

China has been committed to a “peaceful rise.” This shows that the Chinese people want to actualize national rejuvenation in a peaceful way and realize it in the 21st century. Instead of being a threat to any country or region, China’s rise will contribute to global peace and stability. For example, China has provided most troops on UN peacekeeping missions, and the country is also a large contributor to the UN peacekeeping budget. China has played a leading role in maintaining regional peace and stability. Its strong military power is also an important symbol of world peace.

China’s military parade will not be a muscle-flexing show against any country or region, but will aim to show its strong ability to maintain peace and stability in the world. The more military strength China has, the stronger the ability to maintain world peace. As the world is facing challenges of rising unilateralism, global and regional hegemony, it is China’s obligation to safeguard world peace and stability.

Source link

Read more:

China’s military strength guarantees world peace, stability

Military muscle is not a bad thing. The key is how to use such muscle. After seven decades, it is time for China to show some muscle to the world. China’s strength is a reliable guarantee of national unity and world peace. It is also a solid foundation to act
against any force that tries to sabotage regional peace and development. China has always pursued a defensive national defense policy, and the 70 years of peaceful rise is China’s greatest contribution to the development of mankind.

Ceremony to commemorate Martyrs’ Day at Tian’anmen Square党和国家领导人向人民英雄纪念碑敬献花篮 30-09-2919

China holds Martyrs’ Day event in memory of fallen heroes –

https://youtu.be/6GlPbISF8PA

The PLA Navy: Developing rapidly on its 70th anniversary

China’s Grand military parade celebrationn 2015

Related posts:

Tech Titans of China

 AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order; Singapore tries its own path in clash

THE NEW YORK TIMES , USA TODAY , AND WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLER Dr. Kai-Fu Lee—one of the world’s most respected expert.

 

https://youtu.be/0Q85mHJqpuE Beijing’s new mega airport opens today. Daxing International Airport is the second airport in the ca.

 

https://youtu.be/n9Modr_sVr0 Hong Kong’s pro-democracy activist Joshua Wong testifies at a hearing of the US Congressional Execut…

https://youtu.be/-XmC4RSOs2A Watch the start of the above video carefully. See the tall 6+ ft Caucasian guy easily grab the Policeman f..

Daxing International Airport opens in Beijing, Awards to celebrate PRC 70th anniversary


Beijing’s new mega airport opens today. Daxing International Airport is the second airport in the capital and will likely ease congestion at Beijing Capital International Airport

Building China’s $12BN Mega Airport

No stranger to record-breaking projects, China has now completed one of
the largest airports ever conceived – the USD $12BN Daxing International
in Beijing.

 

China opens new Beijing airport ahead of 70th PRC’s anniversary

In this image made from CCTV video taken Sept. 17, 2019, an aerial view is seen of the new Beijing Daxing International Airport. The Chinese capital, Beijing, has opened a second international airport with a  terminal billed as the world’s biggest. (CCTV via AP)

BEIJING (AP) — President Xi Jinping on Wednesday inaugurated a second international airport for the Chinese capital with the world’s biggest terminal ahead of celebrations of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

Beijing Daxing International Airport is designed to handle 72 million passengers a year. Located on the capital’s south side, it was built in less than five years at a cost of 120 billion yuan ($17 billion).

The airline’s first commercial flight, a China Southern Airlines plane bound for the southern province of Guangdong, took off Wednesday afternoon, state broadcaster CCTV reported. Six more flights took off later for Shanghai and other destinations.

The main Beijing airport, located in the city’s northeast, is the world’s second-busiest after Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport and is nearing capacity.

Daxing, designed by the late Iraqi-British architect Zaha Hadid, includes a terminal billed as the world’s biggest at 1 million square meters (11 million square feet).

Despite that, its builders say travelers will need to walk no more than 600 meters (2,000 feet) to reach any boarding gate.

The vast, star-shaped airport is about 45 kilometers (30 miles) south of downtown Beijing. It has four runways, with plans for as many as three more.

Carriers including British Airways and state-owned China Southern, the country’s biggest airline by passengers, plan to move to Daxing from Beijing Capital International Airport.

The capital has a third airport, Nanyuan, for domestic flights, but the government says that will close once Daxing is in operation.

Related:

Live: National awards ceremony to celebrate PRC 70th anniversary国家勋章和国家荣誉称号颁授仪式

Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a presidential decree on September 17 to award 42 Chinese and foreign individuals with national medals and honorary titles. The awards come as the People’s Republic of China prepares to celebrate its 70th founding anniversary on October 1

Forty-two people were awarded national medals and honorary titles by
Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing
on September 29.

Thai princess speaks on behalf of China’s Medal of Friendship recipients

%d bloggers like this: