Factors underpinning bullish outlook for gold


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Shining bright: A saleswoman showing gold bangles at a shop in Kolkata, India. The escalation in geopolitical risks in the Middle East may see the precious metal take centre stage this week. — Reuters

PETALING JAYA: There is a growing bullish outlook for gold as a safe and stable investment given the bias to shift towards monetary easing by major central banks, rising geopolitical tensions, aggressive purchasing by central banks and increasing global debt concerns.

OCBC Bank foreign exchange strategist Christopher Wong said while investors have adjusted expectations regarding the timing and extent of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) initial rate cut, the consensus that a cut is the next step remains firm.

“The prospects of global monetary easing, central banks’ sustained purchase of gold and geopolitical concerns remained the key drivers underpinning gold’s bullish outlook,” he told StarBiz.

Wong noted the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Canada are expected to enter a phase of monetary easing.

“This synchronous easing potential should continue to boost the appeal of gold,” he added.

However, from a positioning and market dynamics perspective, Wong advised caution due to the risk of a near-term retracement in gold prices.

This caution stems from the rapid increase in gold prices in the short recent period and the currently stretched long positions in gold.

That was evident at last Friday’s price action when it hit a high of US$2,431 a troy ounce before profit-taking saw gold settle at US$2,343 for the week.

The escalation in geopolitical risks in the Middle East over the weekend could see the precious metal take centre stage this trading week as investors look for safe havens.

Wong’s medium-term forecast is for gold to rise to US$2,435 per troy ounce by the first half of 2024.

Meanwhile, SPI Asset Management managing director Stephen Innes pointed out unusual circumstances for gold market makers.

He said despite the 10-year US real yields reaching around 2% – the highest since the Lehman crisis – gold prices have continued to climb, setting record highs in 2024.

“Given that gold doesn’t pay any interest, it should be facing competition and pressure. However, despite this, gold has hit record after record high in 2024 and is far from being down and out,” he said.

Innes pointed out that the primary appeal of gold lies in its role as an inflation hedge.

“If you’re not a gold bug, the yellow metal has one primary appeal: it serves as an inflation hedge,” he added.

With no internal rate of return, he said its value often hinges on its ability to preserve purchasing power in times of rising prices

However, regardless of the inflation trends, Innes expected the Fed to cut rates.

This expectation is supported by the US national debt’s rapid increase, with much of this debt financed through short-term instruments.

“The US national debt is rising by US$1 trillion every 100 days. By the time Americans head to the polls in November, it’s expected to reach US$37 trillion. But most of this is getting funded in less than one-year tenor,” he explained.

Innes further explained that the US Treasury has substantially increased its issuance of treasury bills with maturities of less than one year.

The strategy has decreased the average maturity of its debt, making it more sensitive to short-term interest rate changes.

“As a result, this Treasury Twist encourages the Fed to reduce interest rates to ease front-end volatility,” he added.

Innes suggests that initially, the Fed’s interest rate cuts might not directly target reducing the Treasury’s borrowing costs.

However, he said eventually monetary policy could pivot towards facilitating this fiscal largesse.

Ultimately, Innes expects in the near to medium term, the Fed might find itself compelled to assist in managing the US Treasury’s interest payments by reducing rates – a policy shift that could continue to bolster gold’s appeal.

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Recession unlikely for global economy but challenges linger on


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THE global macroeconomic picture is still more sluggish than investors would have liked, particularly when viewed from the gross domestic product (GDP) growth perspective for the first half of 2023 (1H23), although it remains a stretch to say the world is heading for a recession.

A quick glance across the Causeway to Singapore sees the city-state registering a 0.5% yearon-year (y-o-y) growth rate for the second quarter of the year (2Q23), extending marginally from the 0.4% expansion it charted for the preceding quarter.

Elsewhere, such as in major markets like the United States, China and the eurozone, economists are of the opinion that growth has been sturdy during 1H23 but stiff hurdles still remain on the horizon.

While acknowledging that global GDP growth has been slower so far in 2023 due to several familiar factors such as higher interest rates and elevated cost pressures, newly appointed Bank Negara governor Datuk Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour is also not expecting the global economy to slip into recession.

He says resilient domestic demand in advanced economies is providing sufficient support, while also anticipating worldwide trade to improve towards the end of 2023.

Most notably, he perceives China’s slower-than-expected recovery to have limited impact on Malaysia’s own economic expansion and improvement.

“Malaysia’s economy is well diversified in terms of products, services and trade partners, which would cushion the Chinese impact,” says Abdul Rasheed.

According to Bernard Aw, chief economist at Singapore’s Coface Services South Asia-pacific Pte Ltd, although the global economy has been resilient year-to-date, growth outlook in the second half remains challenging, not the least from increasing signals of weakening Chinese economic activity.

Forecasting global GDP expansion to be at 2.2% y-o-y for 2023, and anticipating a similar growth rate of 2.3% growth for next year, he says: “We expect Asean GDP growth (2023: 4.3%; 2024: 4.6%) to be generally faster than advanced economies – at 4.3% and 4.6% for 2023 and 2024 respectively – as tourism recovery and domestic demand drives economic activity.”

Continuing subdued external demand for the region would imply that domestic demand has to continue to partially offset some of the slack, Aw, tells Starbizweek.

“However, the challenging economic environment worldwide, relatively high inflation and interest rates means that even growth in domestic consumption and investment may fall short of expectations,” Aw opines.

Commenting on the overall global interest rate environment, he believes that the trend of disinflation would continue into 2H23, mainly driven by lower energy prices, coupled with China’s deflation having fed into lower export prices, which has also moderated global price pressures.

On the flipside, Aw thinks underlying inflation will remain fairly sticky, despite not being severe enough necessarily for central banks to revert to hiking rates.

“Having said that, they will likely maintain the current restrictive interest rates for a longer-than-expected period,” he says.

Earlier in July, it was reported that the United States economy had grown 2.4% y-o-y in 2Q23, up from the 2% it posted for the first three months of the year and bringing 1H23 GDP to a commendable 2.2%.

“The improved expansion rate had been driven by consumer spending, on top of increases in non-residential fixed investment, government spending and inventory growth.


At the same time, China had registered a 6.3% 2Q23 y-o-y GDP growth rate, which was also an improvement from the 4.5% charted in the previous quarter.

The acceleration however was slower than the expected 7.3% forecast by economists on a Reuters poll, dragged back by tepid demand and sinking property prices which has sapped consumer confidence.

On the same note, chief executive of Centre for Market Education Carmelo Ferlito feels that China’s post “zero-covid” recovery has been fragile since the beginning.

“The economy is not an engine to be switched on and off, but rather it is a living emergent order.

“As such, China is paying the price to a degree with its severe, nation-wide lockdowns while it was implementing the zero-covid policy,” he says.

The decelerating growth in China, says Ferlito, is evidenced by the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cutting a range of key interest rates on Tuesday, which is seen as an emergency move to reignite growth after new data showed the economy has decelerated further last month.

With Chinese officials from its National Bureau of Statistics also suspending reports on youth unemployment, he says the move would deprive investors, economists and businesses of another key data point on the declining health of the world’s second-largest economy.

Divulging more numbers, Ferlito says the twin moves of cutting rates and holding back unemployment data from the Chinese government has coincided with new data showing a slowdown in spending growth by consumers and businesses.

“Concurrently, factory output grew much less than expected, adding to a recent raft of worrying signals. For the first time since February, China’s headline measure of unemployment rose, climbing to 5.3%.

“The jobless rate for people ages 16 to 24, meanwhile, had marched steadily higher for six consecutive months to hit a series of record highs, culminating in a reading of 21.3% in June,” he says.

Ferlito says an economic trichotomy is emerging on the global scene, before adding: “The United States is still fighting inflation, but countries like Germany and Holland are starting to experience technical recession, while China is facing challenges of its own.

“It is that post-lockdown crisis that the CME predicted two years ago.”

Echoing Bank Negara governor Abdul Rasheed, he re-emphasises that it is important to look beyond GDP figures, making his case that if the GDP of a country declines because of a cut in impractical government spending, that would be positive for a country.

Conversely, he argues if GDP growth were to accelerate due to an increase in spending financed by debt, it ultimately would be a bane to the government’s coffers and the national economy.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting a 3% GDP global growth rate for this year and the next, receding from the 3.5% achieved in 2022.

It says the rise in central bank policy rates to stave off inflation has continued to weigh on economic activity, but the good news is that global headline inflation is expected to fall from 8.7% last year to 6.8% in 2023 and 5.2% in 2024.

“The recent resolution of the US debt ceiling stand-off and strong action by authorities to contain turbulence in the US and Swiss banking earlier this year reduced the immediate risks of financial sector turmoil. This moderated adverse risks to the outlook,” the IMF says.

However, it cautions that the balance of risks to global growth remains tilted to the downside, as inflation could remain high and even rise if further shocks occur, including those from an escalation of the Russia-ukraine conflict.

Moreover, the IMF warns that China’s recovery could slow further, partly due to unresolved real estate problems, with negative cross-border spillovers.

On the upside, inflation could fall faster than expected, reducing the need for tight monetary policy, and domestic demand could again prove more resilient

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Higher growth projected for 2023


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Lee said interest rates may stay elevated for some time and expects Bank Negara to hold the OPR at the current level in 2023 and into 2024.

The commendable first-quarter showing augurs well, says the Socio-economic Research Centre

‘STRUCTURAL REFORMS ARE KEY TO SUPPORTING THE ECONOMY AND RINGGIT’ – Lee Heng Lee 

KUALA LUMPUR: The combination of declining exports, persistently high core inflation and cautious consumer spending will likely see the economy experiencing a moderation in growth in the second half of the year (2H23).

Despite anticipating a deceleration in economic growth in the upcoming quarters, Socio-economic Research Centre (SERC) has raised its 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection to 4.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 4.1% previously, to reflect the strength in the first-quarter (1Q23) economic growth.

The GDP expanded by 5.6% in 1Q23, exceeding the 4.8% growth achieved in 1Q22, thanks to sustained domestic demand underpinned by strong private expenditure and improvement in labour market conditions.

SERC executive director Lee Heng Guie said the robust consumer spending witnessed last year may not be replicated this year due to the high interest rate environment and more cautious consumer spending.

“The cash stimulus has already been spent and the spending boom, such as the ‘revenge spending’ that we saw post-pandemic, has already faded,” he said during SERC’S media briefing on the quarterly economic tracker for 2Q23.

Lee pointed out that the country’s exports had also started to ease as global demand weakens under the strain of high inflation and interest rates.

For 1H23, exports contracted by 4.5% y-o-y and Lee projects exports to decline by between 5% and 7% for the full year on the back of lower demand.

With these factors at play, SERC expects GDP to grow in a range of between 4% and 5% in 2H23, with consumer demand continuing to be the key growth driver in the remaining months of the year.

He added the elevated base effect in 2H22 will present another challenge to the 2H23 GDP performance.

On the overnight policy rate (OPR), Lee believes the current rate of 3% is at an “accommodative and supportive” level for sustainable economic activity.

He said interest rates may stay elevated for some time and expects Bank Negara to hold the OPR at the current level in 2023 and into 2024.

“Any change to the OPR is dependent on how resilient the economy is and how consumer inflation behaves.

“I think the current level is just right, (as) it will not significantly hurt the people.

“Structural reforms are key to supporting the economy and the ringgit.” Lee Heng Guie

“It is still supporting the economy, but does not overburden businesses and the people. Even though central banks are likely to end their rate hike cycles, it does not necessarily imply that they will reduce rates either,” he explained.

Lee expects most central banks to likely keep interest rates at current levels till inflation, both headline and core, subsides to a “comfortable range”.

In the majority of advanced economies, a comfortable range of inflation is around 2%, Lee observed. Although headline inflation has eased in Malaysia, Lee stressed the battle against inflation has not been won.

“This is because subsidy rationalisation is still on the table of the government. The government needs to address that following the state elections to control the budget deficit,” Lee noted.

Given the volatility in crude oil prices, Lee said the current oil subsidy scheme was fiscally unsustainable and would further contribute to deficits.

He added the ringgit had strengthened against the currencies of Japan, China, Australia, Taiwan and India since the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) first federal fund rate hike in March last year.

However, against the greenback, the local unit is among a basket of currencies that have experienced a significant weakening after having declined by about 7.4% since the start of the rate hike cycle.

“Structural reforms are key to supporting the economy and the ringgit,” Lee stressed.

He said the proposed progressive wage model (PWM) plan, which is currently under consideration by the government, is a right step towards a productivity-linked wage system which will foster competitiveness by forging a stronger correlation between wages and productivity.

Lee, however, contends that a more comprehensive and practical analysis should be undertaken on the plan by a tripartite body, which includes representatives from the government, employers and employees.

This is due to the presence of valid concerns and areas of uncertainty within the proposal, such as whether the PWM would be extended to foreign workers and specific sectors.

In keeping the economy resilient, Lee emphasised on the importance of private investment.

He reiterated that private investment not only helped stimulate economic growth, but also generated jobs and thus benefiting both the community and the nation as a whole.

Speaking on the US economy, Lee believes that it is still resilient, citing the strength of its labour market and wage growth as indications. However, he said consumer spending remained robust and asserts inflationary pressure.

“In the United States, headline inflation has not reached the targeted 2% level, while core inflation remains sticky.

“This is something the Fed would be observing. If there is risk of inflation resurgence, it may still continue to increase rates,” Lee said.

Globally, Lee pointed out that the purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector has continued its downtrend, sustaining below the 50-point threshold. The services sector, meanwhile, recorded a slight slowdown in its latest figures.

“We are worried the slowdown in the manufacturing sector has broadened and impacted the services sector,” Lee added.

On world trade volume and industrial production, Lee pointed out that both have been moderating, owing to slower demand. “This is why we saw a decline in exports for regional countries, including Malaysia, recently.”

The Star – StarBiz By KIRENNESH NAIR kirennesh@thestar.com.my 3 Aug 2023

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UK loses its allure and faces big investment gap


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Big job: Sunak greets Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson outside Number 10 Downing Street. The survey underscores the challenge Sunak’s
government has in reviving economic growth with a labour force that has shrunk since the pandemic. — Reuters

 

LONDON: The United Kingdom (UK) has fallen six places in the global economic competitiveness rankings because business leaders have lost confidence in the country, due in part to “government incompetence”.

The annual World Competitiveness Ranking from the International Institute for Management Development saw the UK plunge from 23rd to 29th out of 64 countries.

In a separate analysis, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) warned that years of underinvestment are holding back growth and harming ambitions to build up green industries.

It estimated the nation would have received an extra £560bil (US$720bil or RM3.3 trillion) in real terms had investment from private firms and the government stayed at the Group of Seven average since 2005.

“The UK is experiencing a debilitating case of investment phobia, and the government’s aversion to investing to seize future opportunities is stopping us from getting out of the growth doom loop we find ourselves in,” said George Dibb, associate director for the economy at IPPR.

The figures underscore the challenge Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government has in reviving economic growth with a labour force that has shrunk since the pandemic.

Political leaders from all parties are concerned about the UK’s stagnating productivity and sticky levels of inflation, which have undermined the confidence of investors both in stocks and in businesses.

In the competitiveness rank, the UK lost ground on all the key indicators, which is a worrying sign for the government, which wants to attract investment to boost growth.

Respondents said the country had become more bureaucratic, the government less efficient, and the workforce less productive.

Denmark held on to the top spot in 2023, and Ireland jumped nine places to second. Switzerland, the Netherlands and Singapore completed the top five.

“The dramatic drop in the survey indicators suggests a systemic pessimism about the future,” Arturo Bris, lead researcher on the rankings and director of the IMD World Competitiveness Centre, said in an interview. “The deterioration in business sentiment says executives are losing confidence in the country.”

More than 6,400 senior executives from across the world were interviewed for the report. Just 3% of respondents said the competency of the government made the UK an attractive destination for investment.

“Government incompetence, poor workplace culture, and restrictive immigration laws were among several reasons why the UK fared badly,” the report said.

The report also found that the UK is becoming increasingly bureaucratic, despite the government’s pledge to use “Brexit freedoms” to cut regulation. The UK fell 12 places in the bureaucracy sub-ranking from 15th to 27th, while France climbed from 44th to 41st, Bris said.

France remained less attractive than the UK, dropping five places to 33rd in the rankings. Germany fell seven places to 22nd.

The survey was conducted between February and May but reflected the political chaos of 2022, a year in which the UK got through three prime ministers and four chancellors.

The struggling economy, with inflation higher and the labour market tighter than other leading industrial nations, will have also affected sentiment badly, Bris said. — Bloomberg

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Is the ringgit weakness permanent?


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  •  

It is important to look at the ringgit weakness from a more holistic perspective.

 

 

Global currency: the reason the us dollar remains in demand in spite of its national debt and endless printing of money is because the value of the dollar is backed by the us government, its military strength and technological advancement. — reuters

WITH the World Health Organisation declaring Covid-19 no longer a global health emergency and countries opening their borders, we have seen a resurgence in the tourism industry.

Airlines such as Singapore Airlines have declared a record high quarterly profit of S$2.16bil (Rm7.37bil) in its 76-year history.

People are finally travelling again, be it for work or leisure. Yet, the irony of it is the weakness of our local currency.

This has led to many lamenting across social media about our foreign-exchange weakness and the voice of discontent has been growing by the day.

People are bewildered because our underlying economy remains resilient and there are no signs that we are heading anywhere close to a recession.

Even after Bank Negara embarked on a pre-emptive rate hike of the overnight policy rate (OPR) surprising the market, it couldn’t stymie the continued weakness of the ringgit.

So, what is happening?

Factors affecting a currency

In the study of Economics 101, foreign currency is parked under the chapter of macroeconomics.

This means that a currency’s movement is determined pretty much by macroeconomic factors such as inflation, fiscal policy, employment levels, national income and international trade.

Hence, it is impossible to pinpoint our currency’s prolonged weakness on a single reason.

I have heard all sorts of talk in the coffeeshop, including political instability, increasing fiscal deficit, shrinking current account surplus, the US debt ceiling crisis, the weakening oil price and looming recession, among others.

The above-mentioned factors all play a part in contributing to the weakness and none can stand alone to be deemed as the root cause of the issue.

Otherwise, it would be a rather easy fix.

As everything is intertwined and linked, it is important to look at our ringgit weakness from a more holistic perspective.

Exactly 10 years ago, the ringgit’s strength peaked in January 2013 at RM2.96 against one US dollar as the United States was undergoing large-scale quantitative easing to dig itself out of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

Another reason was because the Brent oil price hit a high of US$125 per barrel, record levels at the same period.

There were many reasons that gave confidence to boost the ringgit’s performance as Malaysia was an oil exporter with large infrastructure projects being rolled out by the government of the day.

Even the property market was booming with many foreign buyers and real estate developers venturing into our local markets.

It all went downhill after the 1Malaysia Development Bhd scandal surfaced and the national debt ballooned to astronomical levels with little to show for.

With the oil price correcting to record low levels and large amounts of government allocations being used to defray interest expenses on the debts, this expanded our fiscal deficit.

It all comes down to demand

We often hear about the emphasis on foreign direct investment (FDI).

This is because with FDI, it will promote employment, transfer of skills and business opportunity, among others.

Additionally, from an economic standpoint, FDI increases the money supply and inadvertently the demand for the ringgit.


When FDI falls, demand falls. From the data gathered by the Investment, Trade and Industry Industry, the problem is with domestic direct investment (DDI) rather than FDI.

For the past decade, DDI has been a straight line downward trend.

This effectively means local businesses are not reinvesting their profits or expanding locally as much.

To me, it is a bigger indicator that whatever funds or profits from local businesses are being moved towards the current account, savings account or worst, foreign outflow.

There is little to no multiplier effect and if it is an outflow, it will further reduce the demand for the ringgit and in turn weaken the currency.

Tourism is another aspect that is important to an economy.

Apart from the spillover effect of tourism spending, it is the positive carry that helps with the currency’s strength.

If tourism activity in our country picks up, naturally, there will be more need for the ringgit and in turn leading to its strengthening.

Thailand is good example of a successful tourism nation where tourism is the third-largest economic activity contributing to 20% of the gross domestic product for the country and it is only behind the two key sectors, namely, agriculture and industry.

If we look at the Thai baht performance against the ringgit, we

can see its continued strength from RM1 to 9.61 baht to RM1 to 7.52 baht.

Essentially, all three sectors of Thailand – agriculture, industry and tourism – have been growing in the past decade, which, in turn, increased the demand for their currency.

Continued downtrend

Many are very worried that this downtrend of the ringgit will continue to persist in the years to come.

If we look at what has happened historically, there are of course reasons to be worried.

In my conversation with high-networth clients, their number one concern is always inflation eroding the value of their money.

The second worry is the weakness in the foreign exchange (forex) that erodes the global monetary value of their savings.

Due to this fear, it is easy for private bankers to market foreign products or funds to these clients regardless of the returns.


A client once told me, “Even if I move my savings to Singapore and the stock market or investments do not perform, at the very least the forex carry alone would deliver 40% return in the span of 10 years.”

An indirect measure of the economy is the strength of its currency.

If everyone wants your currency to be their reserve currency, it is likely that your country’s economy is strong and healthy and vice versa.

No matter how we improve the fundamentals of our economy, there will always be a difference between a developed economy and of those developing economies.

The reason the US dollar remains in demand in spite of its national debt and endless printing of money is because the value of the dollar is backed by the US government, its military strength and technological advancement.

China is also pushing for the internationalisation of the yuan and as the second largest economic powerhouse in the world, there are merits to be a highly sought-after currency.


The Singapore dollar’s value manifests in it being an anchor on stability, a haven and its function as an international entrepot.

For the ringgit, its value is probably largely still associated with commodities exporting nation.

While our exports and trade have always been a fixture, more must be done to reflect this value to the world.

Having a strong currency which is in demand is a powerful tool that can be used to a country’s advantage, especially when it comes to business and geopolitical negotiations.

There are many challenges that the government must overcome before we can turn the old economy around and upgrade it to a new model forward.

I remain optimistic about the potential of the country and the talent of this young nation to turn things around.

If we look at how blessed our country is, rich with natural resources, low population density per habitable land area, free from natural disaster, etc, the only thing impeding the progress is good governance and professional management.

To believe a new government can change this overnight (seven months to be precise) is being a tad too optimistic.

More time is needed to restructure the troubles of the past.


If we foster a healthy environment for the SMES to grow, promote food security and self-sufficiency and manage our natural resources prudently, we can become a strong economy in Asean.

A stable currency is paramount for an economy and if we improve investments and reinvestments in the country, the ringgit’s weakness is not permanent.

 By Ng zhu hann 

CEO & Founder, Tradeview Capital | Founder, Hann Partnership | Author, Once Upon A Time In Bursa | Columnist, StarBiz & Nanyang
Siang Pau|
 
 
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Is real estate still a viable investment asset?


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 While Malaysia remains a nation of growing young working population, the main challenge with regard to homeownership is the lack of wage growth rather than the lack of affordable products.

 

In the case of real estate, it has its own merits because it is tangible and with the title of the property under your name, it is physically yours.

 

FOR the longest time real estate is the preferred investment asset class for many people. There are fond memories when it comes to making the right investment and more so for property owners who have enjoyed capital appreciation or significant rental yield by investing in real estate.

We also frequently hear of stories on how ordinary working and middle-class families successfully provided education for their children through the refinancing or selling of their own real estate assets.

Even in the grander scheme of things, real estate constitutes 7% of the total RM1 trillion in asset under management of our Employees Provident Fund.

How is it that this popular asset class has fallen out of favour with so many investors today?

Whenever I speak to clients on investments and their allocation, I would hear all kinds of unconventional investments schemes (regardless of whether legitimate or not) but at the mention of real estate, they would tell me that the golden days are long over.

It is rather demotivating to hear such comments, especially when I have been involved in this sector for a large part of my professional career while witnessing its heydays.

Economic cycles come around

 

The study of economics and its application may be subjective at times but there is one single theory that holds true over the course of time – that is the economic cycle.

Every asset class goes through a cycle, including real estate. From boom to bust and boom again, various factors play a part throughout the cycle.

If at all we look deep into the real estate cycle, we would easily realise the trend or pattern through each cycle.

Many decades before, real estate was scarce and buying property was a very expensive affair due to the high interest rates on loans.

In the 1990s, the loan interest rate per annum is close to double digits.

In addition, there are no full flexible or auto balance reduction loan offerings unlike today.

Coupled with very low margin of financing, mortgages are costly becoming the main barriers to homeownership. Then there is the issue of the law on property development which is not as comprehensive as it is today hence from a project commencement to completion, it was largely an unpredictable timeline.

Today, the laws are extensive both in terms of the development process as well as for the protection of property owners.

As a result, we have seen many companies with unrelated expertise or core business in property venture into development.

At last count, there are close to 200 companies listed on Bursa Malaysia which has property development or construction related businesses.

Coupled with the Strata Title Act, landbanks can be unlocked vertically rather than just horizontally unlike how it was before. This contributed to an oversupply.

On demand side, while Malaysia remains a nation with growing young working population, the main challenge towards homeownership is the lack of wage growth rather than the lack of affordable products.

In the residential segment, National Property Information Centre data shows that the unsold units have largely fallen in the past year from 36,863 units worth Rm22.79bil at the end of 2021 compared with 27,746 units worth Rm18.41bil as of December 2022.

There are also substantial number of units of residential overhang in the country with units totaling 14,000 units worth Rm4.63bil (which is 53% of total unsold inventories) within the affordable price range of less than RM500,000.

This means the stagnant wage growth in the face of global inflation has seen the people’s purchasing power weaken.

When disposable income falls, debt level rises, naturally big-ticket purchases with long term monthly commitment fall on the back burner.

Accommodative measures and policies

 

Real estate cycle is highly susceptible to changes in economic policies and government regulations including tax regimes.

When there is an accommodative policy such as a low interest rate environment or in Malaysia’s case when Developer Interest Bearing Scheme (DIBS) was allowed, it spurred huge demand for real estate because holding on to cash has little value.

Funds would either move into equity markets or real estate markets and other instruments to generate yield.

When the policies started to tighten with higher interest rates making borrowing cost higher, or removal of DIBS and even imposing higher Real Property Gains Tax amongst others, there was a flight of capital from the real estate sector.

We are now beginning to see some ray of lights at the end of the tunnel following eight years of market oversupply since the peak in 2014.

The flood of newly completed projects and unsold inventories in the balance sheet of developers which naturally became a bane for the industry is seeing some improvement following the auto correction in the economy cycle due to two years lost to the pandemic.

In addition, higher raw material costs, inflationary pressure and the diminishing value of our currency has slowly helped the market adjust to the property price as what was once deemed expensive becomes more tenable. This will help with the rejuvenation of the real estate market with the exception for commercial office segment.

Hedge against inflation

 

When we talk about investment, we need to consider the underlying assets’ ability to hedge against inflation apart from its absolute return.

Ultimately, so long as the underlying asset over a duration of time can beat inflation and preserve the value of your money, that would make it a viable investment asset.

Apart from that, it is important to make comparisons across asset classes to determine what best suits your personal need.

Everyone has their own risk tolerance and investment horizon.

Subject to your individual preference, one should choose the asset class that one is most comfortable with. Some may find insurance products pragmatic, some may prefer to invest in safe-haven commodities like gold or silver, others may prefer equities or bonds.

In the case of real estate, it has its own merits because it is tangible and with the title of the property under your name, it is physically yours. This makes it a highly acceptable asset class to most people including some who are not particularly financially astute or do not fancy complex capital markets products.

Any time is a good time for own use

 

No doubt when it comes to investing, everyone wants to make money. Otherwise, it defies the objective of investment.

If investments do not reap returns, might as well leave the money in fixed deposit.

However, real estate is a one of-a-kind asset class that has tangible benefits and allows enjoyment of the assets with the benefits of investment value.

Unlike gold or silver, the enjoyment is limited to seeing it glitter in your safe deposit or alternatively, melting it to design custom jewelry.

For real estate, specifically residential, one can move in and reside in it while for commercial or industrial properties, one can use it for business purposes.

This makes the investment thesis in real estate different from other asset class such as equities or fixed income.

The benefit of tangible use and enjoyment makes the timing of investment less significant if one has actual use for it.

Quoting Li Ka-shing, if you are looking to buy property for your own stay and not for speculation purposes, anytime is a good time. 

Ng ZHU HANN Ng zhu Hann is the CEO of tradeview Capital. He is also a
lawyer and the author of Once Upon a time in Bursa. the views expressed
here are the writer’s own.

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Is Real Estate Still A Good Investment?

 

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Interest and inflation rates, how high is high?


Tweet #Rightways

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

AS we welcome 2023, one of the central themes this year will be how high will interest rates rise after the relentless pursuit taken by global central banks in fighting inflation with persistent and measured rate hikes in 2022.

As can be seen from Chart 1, from the 75 basis points (bps) hike by the Bank of Thailand to the 425 bps hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the year 2022 has certainly been a busy year for central banks.

 

Central banks had no choice but to raise rates to fend off inflationary pressure that has been persistent throughout the year, although there have been some signs of easing lately.

Not to be left behind, even the Bank of Japan, while not lifting key benchmark rate, allowed its 10-year Japanese government bonds to move 50 bps from its 0% target, instead of 25 bps earlier.

It is a move that is seen recognising that inflation is finally biting the Japanese too.

CLICK TO ENLARGE 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 Chart 2 shows that based on November 2022 statistics, the depositors are at the losing end as the 12-month deposit rate was 132 bps lower than the monthly inflation print of 4%.

 

Can inflation be tamed?

Reading inflationary pressures and forecasting where it is going is not an easy task especially when inflation prints itself is a combination of many factors and not just commodity prices and supply chain disruption that has been the core issues among central banks the past year. Although the global economic momentum has eased, global aggregate demand is still rising and much higher than it was before the pandemic.

Hence, there has been not only a persistent rise in consumer demand but one that is not matched by consistent supply provided in the marketplace, resulting in a hike in aggregate prices.

In theory, inflation is tamed by using monetary tightening measures as it is believed that by raising interest rates, consumers and businesses will be impacted by higher borrowing costs, resulting in lower consumption as well as a slower pace of investments, which in turn will reduce aggregate demand.

Nevertheless, rate hikes have also other consequential impacts on the economy in the form of a weaker or a stronger currency, depending on the relative increase in domestic rates vis-à-vis the comparative increase in other corresponding currencies.

For example, for the United States, the relentless increase by the Fed has caused a significant rally in the US Dollar Index, which rose to a high of US$114 (RM501) last year, up almost 20%, before easing to close the year at US$103 (RM454), down 9.3% from its peak, but still higher by more than 8%.

The surge in the dollar made US imports cheaper from the rest of the world, in particular those from China, even cheaper, which allows the US retail prices at the store to be relatively lower than they used to be before the rally in the dollar.

In essence, while the surge in US interest rates has reduced disposable income due to higher borrowing costs, which in turn lowered consumer demand, it has also caused imported end product prices to be relatively cheaper than before, allowing aggregate prices to be lower as well.

This suggests that US consumer products are in for a double-whammy in terms of prices as aggregate demand has been reduced due to lower disposable income and at the same time for products that are imported, prices too have eased due to the strength of the greenback.

For an economist, this is good news as the intended outcome will likely be achieved in taming inflationary pressure due to persistent hikes in interest rates. A look at inflation prints from the peaks in 2022, both the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE) have eased, falling by 67 bps and 62 bps from the highs and were last seen at 6% and 4.7% respectively.

Are we there yet?

After a 425 bps hike, the Fed’s message in the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released this week was an important one as it guided the market to expect higher rates going into 2023 but at the same time also signalled that the war against inflation is far from over and the Fed will continue to raise rates until it can achieve its targeted inflation print.

Compared with its September forecast of 4.6%, the Fed has now raised its median Fed Fund Rate (FFR) for 2023 to 5.1%, an increase of 50 bps while at the same time, the Fed also expects median FFR to drop by 100 bps each in 2024 and 2025 to 4.1% and 3.1% from earlier projected rate of 3.9% and 2.9% respectively.

Core PCE inflation, which is the Fed’s benchmark rate for inflationary pressure, is now expected to hit a median rate of 4.8% in 2022 before easing to 3.5% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024 respectively.

By all means, the Fed is forecasting that inflation will be tamed in time to come. Hence, in all likelihood, we have seen the peak in inflationary pressure but perhaps we will be in for a higher US rate for longer before we see the Fed’s pivot.

Contrary to market expectations, the FOMC minutes this week revealed that the Fed is not expected to cut rates in 2023.

As for the market, based on Fed Fund Futures the Fed is expected to raise the FFR by 25 bps each over the next three meetings to reach 5.00% and 5.25%, followed by two rate cuts of 25 bps each in the second half of 2023, bringing the FFR back to 4.5% and 4.75% at the end of 2023.

Bank Negara to stand pat?

Compared to many central banks in the region or globally, Bank Negara move to raise the benchmark Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 100 bps last year is seen as rather muted.

Based on the year-to-date core CPI of 2.9% up to November 2022, the inflationary pressure experienced by Malaysia remained within Bank Negara’s forecast of between 2% and 3% for the year and going into 2023, core inflation prints will remain elevated at the beginning of the year but may ease later on, especially with the current government’s efforts in reducing the cost of living.

Given that scenario and the likelihood that the Fed and other regional central banks too are almost done raising rates, Bank Negara may stand pat and leave the OPR unchanged for 2023 at 2.75%. After all, a higher rate of between 25 bps to 50 bps as predicted by many broking firms will only result in higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, a move that will likely accelerate the pace of economic slowdown in 2023. By leaving the OPR unchanged, Bank Negara is signalling that it is done with raising rates and the current rate remains commodative and supportive of economic growth.

Positive real returns?

One of the arguments for higher interest rates is whether depositors are getting positive real returns, which is the difference between fixed deposit rates and inflation prints.

Chart 2 shows that based on November 2022 statistics, the depositors are at the losing end as the 12-month deposit rate was 132 bps lower than the monthly inflation print of 4%.

However, interestingly, as the market is anticipating rate hikes of 25 bps in the January 2023 Monetary Policy Committee meeting and another hike in March 2023, 12-month fixed deposit rates of many banks have passed the 3% mark and depositors could even easily enjoy rates up to 4% as promotional activities to attract fresh deposits have intensified over the past month. With that, depositors are already getting returns close to the headline monthly inflation prints.

In conclusion, while it makes sense for Bank Negara to stand pat and not raise rates in its first two meetings this year as widely expected, the market has already priced in the scenario that the central bank is ready to raise rates by 50 bps to take the benchmark OPR to 3.25%, the level last seen in March 2019, almost four years ago.

 

Pankaj C Kumar   Pankaj C. Kumar is a long-time investment analyst. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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The strong dollar should not become a sharp blade to cut the world, THE NEED FOR BRETTON WOODS III


Tweet #Rightways

 

Is the Dollar the key to US hegemony?

 

Illustration:Chen Xia/Global Times

Illustration:Chen Xia/Global Times

The US Federal Reserve will hold a new policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the decision on interest rate growth being the limelight. It is widely anticipated that the Fed will deliver at least another 75-basis-point interest rate hike to tame inflation. This might further increase the value of the US dollar against other currencies, which is at its 20-year high. Driven by the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes, the US dollar is viewed as “experiencing a once-in-a-generation rally.” For many countries in the world, this might be the beginning of another nightmare.

The meeting will witness the fifth time that the Fed will raise interest rates. The direct reason is to ease the high pressure of inflation in the US. But if people dig the root cause, this is an inevitable consequence of US’ blind and unlimited money printing to temporarily maintain “prosperity.” In other words, in the face of the deep-seated problems exposed by the 2008 financial crisis, Washington has been powerless, and unwilling as well, to solve them. Instead, it was extremely short-sighted to cover up the crisis and curry favor with the Wall Street, while taking advantage of the hegemony of the US dollar to quietly treat the crisis like dumping wastewater – draining it to the world.

A super strong US dollar and the fall of other currencies will, to a certain extent, ease the scorching inflation in the US economy, but the world will have to pay for it, which is often referred to as “when the US is sick, the world has to takes pill.” The ensuing severe inflation, economic recession and other problems have already appeared on a large scale in many countries. Thirty-six currencies around the world have lost at least one-tenth of their value this year, with the Sri Lankan rupee and Argentine peso falling by more than 20 percent, since the dollar strengthened.

This has not only worsened the already weak economies of Europe and Japan, but also forced a large number of developing countries to swallow the bitter pills of the economic recession caused by imported inflation. Countless families were impoverished overnight. This is a very abnormal situation that is not supposed to occur, but it is the cruel truth behind the US “containment of inflation.”

In fact, since the end of World War II, the US has used dollar hegemony to carry out “financial looting” or “export crises” against other countries several times. As a widely popular phrase in the West goes, the US enjoys the exorbitant privileges created by the dollar and the deficit without tears, and used the worthless paper note to plunder the resources and factories of other nations.

Each round of dollar appreciation in the past decades has been accompanied by extremely bad memories: The Latin American debt crisis broke out in the first round, Japan suffered from the “lost two decades” during the second round and the Asian financial crisis took place during the third. Particularly in the Asian crisis, which is still fresh in many people’s memories, more than 100 million middle-class people in Asia fell into poverty, according to the World Bank estimation. The strengthened dollar, time and again, cuts the world like a sharp blade.

Therefore, while the political elites in Washington boast of the “myth of the American system” and take credit for “alleviating the crisis,” thousands of poor families around the world are being trampled by them. They are not unaware of this, but still collectively choose to be indifferent and arrogant, as if this is the privilege that the “hegemon” should enjoy. As US former treasury secretary John Connally put it in the 1970s, “The dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem.” Today, the dollar is once again the world’s problem. In a sense, it’s hard to believe that the “prosperity” of the US is clean and moral.

However, the crisis cannot be covered up forever. Washington keeps laying mines but never removes them, which will eventually explode the US itself. The incompetence of US financial policymakers has been exposed by the consecutive interest rate hikes that have contributed to the abnormal appreciation of the US dollar with the purpose of defusing the severe inflation.

For the US itself, what will rise accordingly are the cost of corporate financing, the pressure on residents to repay their loans, and the price of export production among others. Meanwhile, the credibility that the US dollar has as a global currency is being continuously exhausted by the US “beggar-thy-neighbor” policy. Now the anxiety and insecurity brought by the US dollar to the world has heralded the beginning of the decline of its hegemony – regarding Washington’s insatiable exploitation, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and other regions have explored the path of “de-dollarization,” leading to the inevitable diversification of the international monetary system.

The best way to restrain the rampaging hegemony is to practice true multilateralism. Whether it was the Asian financial crisis in 1997 or the global financial crisis in 2008, the world seemed to have stumbled more than once by the same stone, which, however, is not that firm anymore. The instability and fragility of international financial markets have once again become prominent. It is precisely at such times that the international community should be more determined to cooperate and build a reliable, systemic and long-term multilateral international financial system. This cannot wait. 

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 THE NEED FOR BRETTON WOODS III

World Affairs – Non-Partisan and Objective

 

The United States of America is in big trouble, short term and long term. In 2022, the stock market is crashing, bond market is down the most in 40 years, housing bubble is bursting, inflation is skyrocketing, debt is exploding, and GDP is shrinking. These are not temporary crises. Instead, they reveal systemic flaws in the American economy that is propped up by a rigged global financial system. 

However, that fraudulent system is starting to crumble and the primacy of US dollar is in serious trouble, thanks to an emerging multipolar world. (Don’t believe the nonsense that the US can keep printing infinite amount of dollars).

The US needs to default on its debt and start new. Declare bankruptcy and yet remain the #1 country. This will be the “Bretton Woods III” agreement.

Sounds ridiculous? Well, it’s possible only if all the other countries are weak and nobody is strong enough to challenge the US.

This is why the US must not only crush Russia and China — its two biggest geopolitical rivals, but also weaken Europe. This paves the way for the US to establish a new global order which is similarly rigged and just as deceitful and corrupt — in order to prolong the American Century.

Dollar Hegemony

America’s extraordinary power comes from the power of US dollar, which is the established global currency for trade. This also means that countries around the world have to accumulate US dollars in their foreign exchange reserves. But the US has been abusing its power by weaponizing the dollar through sanctions and confiscations of hard-earned reserves.

No wonder that China, Russia and others are seeking ways to circumvent the dollar in trade. Since 1999, the share of US dollar assets in central bank reserves has dropped by 12 percentage points—from 71 percent. Hence the share of US dollar in global reserves is now only 59%. When that number falls below 50%, the tectonic shifts in global finance will become more apparent to Americans.

To fully grasp the nature of the current world order, let’s see how the US established the dollar as the world currency, carried about the biggest gold heist in human history, then defaulted on its obligations, but revived the moribund dollar with a clever deal. That’s the story of Bretton Woods I and II.

Bretton Woods I – Gold-backed Dollar

WW2 was a wonderful thing for the US. First, it took the US economy out of the Great Depression. The US played the role of arms supplier and gladly watched European empires destroy themselves. Even before the war was over, the US brought in all the allies to Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, and said, “When the war is over, you will all be weak and broke. I will be the new empire and my dollar will be the global currency. And it will be as good as gold — a guaranteed rate of $35 per ounce of gold.”

This meant that if you have $35, you can go to a bank and get an ounce of gold!

The world agreed. When the war was over, everyone bought US dollar with gold and used it for trade. Huge amounts of gold were also physically transferred from Japan, Germany and other parts of the world into the vaults of the Federal Reserve Bank in New York.

This system worked until 1971 when the US suddenly declared that, “Oops, the dollar is not backed by gold anymore. If you have US dollars, they are just pieces of paper now. You cannot get your gold back!” People called it the “Nixon Shock.”

1970s – When Fiat Dollar almost died

This was also the biggest gold theft in human history. But what could the world do? America had nuclear weapons and the mightiest military.

Of course, the switch to a fiat currency caused havoc. The value of US dollar fell precipitously and inflation skyrocketed. The US economy was in deep trouble. That’s when the US elites came up with a clever idea to rescue the dollar and restore its primacy.

Bretton Woods II – The Birth of Petrodollar

How to make the dollar relevant? Hmm…What if everyone needed US dollar to buy something essential?

Like … OIL. Brilliant!

This was the birth of Petrodollar.

Basically, the U.S. used Saudi Arabia’s oil to save the dollar. That is, Saudi Arabia (and other smaller producers) would sell oil only for US dollars. And to make sure that the Saudis don’t get too powerful, they will be forced to recycle most of their profits back into the US economy. It was also a protection racket, which meant the US military would occupy Saudi Arabia and protect it from enemies.

Saudi King Faisal with Kissinger. Birth of Petrodollar. But why would the Saudis agree to this? Because the U.S. make Saudi Arabia the new king of oil and the most influential Middle East power … after crippling Iran.

Win-win for the US.

Thus, the U.S. armed and funded Saddam Hussein of Iraq to wage a decade-long war on Iran. US provided arms/intelligence. Germany and France provided deadly chemical/biological weapons to Iraq. Here’s Donald Rumsfeld with Saddam in 1983.

Of course, the same Rumsfeld would bomb Iraq and kill Saddam twenty years later.

Thus, the Petrodollar deal with Saudi Arabia could be called as Bretton Woods II. It extended the life of the American Empire by a few more decades.

Bretton Woods III –

For the last four decades, countries around the world have been foolishly working hard for US dollars, buying US treasuries, and funding the American Empire. But within the next decade, those U.S. treasury bills and bonds might be worthless. Deja vu all over again.

The U.S. needs Bretton Woods, Version 3. Somehow, the world needs to write off all American debt and start the racket anew. But … with America still as #1 How the hell could this happen?? This is how:

If the world is full of weak countries, they will accept the new rules — just like they did in 1944 and 1974. Imagine a world where Russia and Europe destroy one another. Imagine a world where Japan and India attack China … and they all get destroyed. A world on fire, destroyed by passion and bombs.

In that world, America will come in as the savior at the last moment, stop the war, and make everyone a happy vassal.

Great Reset. Bretton Woods III. New World Order. Call it what you will.

Conclusion

The wheels are in motion. After eight years of provocation, the US successfully forced Russia to invade Ukraine. And the US also brilliantly pulled Europe into the mess. Europe’s economy is being crushed and de-industrialized.

As for China, the U.S. is trying its best to start a war using Taiwan as the pawn. Japan is being asked to re-militarize and procure 1000 long-range missiles. The US needs a few more years to manufacture this mother of all wars. A lot depends on India, since Japan wouldn’t want to be the only Asian country to attack China.

Four years ago, I predicted all this in the article “The Most Dangerous Decade.” However, much of the world is still happy to be mesmerized and led into the slaughterhouse.

Only Russia and China can change how this story evolves. If Putin can quickly and decisively win the Ukraine war, he can force a peace settlement with Europe.

And China needs to accelerate the internationalization of Yuan. There is no de-dollarization without a robust alternative financial system. China also needs to muster the greatest diplomatic efforts to make peace with Japan and India, the two most potent adversaries and puppets of the US.

In the most optimistic scenario, the Global South or the people of the developing nations can bring into fruition a new fair world without catastrophic wars or financial devastation. As Sun Tzu said, “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

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Whither the ringgit? US Inflation & workforce are the bigger problems

 

 Whither the ringgit? US Inflation & workforce are the bigger problems

 
  WITH the ringgit passing the RM4.50 mark to the mighty US dollar, questions have been asked as to where the ringgit is headed, as it ha…

 

A matter of Cost: Stretching their ringgit further


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Janet Chia, 48, watering the lettuce plants at her house compound in Seri Kembangan, Selangor. Chia and her husband have planted several vegetables in their garden for their own consumption. 


Rise in prices pushes Ipoh folk to think of alternative ways to live within means

The hike in prices of essential items such as chicken, eggs, flour and vegetables has compelled ordinary folk in Perak to plant their own greens and herbs. Some are trimming their grocery bill or dining out less frequently by cooking simpler meals at home to better manage their household expenses. LIKE the rest of the nation, consumers in Ipoh, Perak, are feeling the pinch from the rise in the prices of goods, especially essential items.

The increase in prices is taking a toll on the people, leaving those in the low and middle-income groups struggling to cope.

Retiree Joginder Kaur Jessy, 67, said she had started to grow some vegetables in her house compound to help cut cost of buying greens.

She said eating out had always been expensive but cooking at home was no longer cheap either.

Expressing dismay at the rise in the prices of oil, vegetables, fish, chicken and eggs, she felt it necessary to cut back on some items as she was a pensioner.

“I have to be more prudent now and use less ingredients when cooking.

“I will probably have to look for a cheaper type of fish, eat less chicken, try to cook smaller portions, avoid wastage and make leftover food stretch over a few days,” she said.

Among the vegetables and fruits that Joginder has planted are chillies, okra, brinjal, lemon, mint, banana and papaya.

“Most of the prices of vegetables, fish and other seafood have tripled.

“Some fishmongers and vegetable and fruit sellers have taken this opportunity to raise the prices even further,” she added.

Holly Lai, 60, a marketing manager, said that at times cooking at home was more expensive than eating out.

Lai, who is single, said she used to cook at home, but after the increase in prices, she discovered it was not worth the effort.

Preferring fish and eggs in her diet, she noted that the prices of these items were not affordable.

“For me to cook a meal consisting of fish, rice and a vegetable, it will easily cost about RM15, not including the spices and other ingredients.

“In comparison, I can get a meal consisting of three dishes and rice for between RM5 and RM7 from a stall.

“During these trying times, I must choose wisely and cannot simply eat at expensive restaurants,” she added.

Teacher Ambiga Pillay, 60, said the government should step in to counter the increase in prices. 

 

Ambiga says she cuts down on daily costs by cooking more often at home.

Many including herself, she said, were saving on daily living costs by cooking more often as well as cutting back on luxury expenditures and travel.

“I always cook at home although it is a challenge as I work full-time.

“People think that grocery prices are lower in Ipoh compared to Kuala Lumpur, but it is not true.

“Prices here are higher because there is less variety compared to other places,” she said, adding that some also looked for cheaper alternatives to save money.

“I plan my finances based on priority as well,” said Ambiga.

Family Wellness Club president P. Mangaleswary also noted that people had been complaining about the rising prices of essential items.

She said some members of the non-governmental organisation (NGO) complained about how prices of vegetables had gone up in wet markets.

Members were saying that 1kg of tomatoes now cost RM9 when it used to be about RM5 before, she told StarMetro.

“Just last weekend at a get-together, some said they were feeling the burden of rising food prices as other expenses such as transport and house rental were also going up.

“The government’s cash aid for the B40 group is hardly enough for them to cover the rising costs.

“The government needs to look into some concrete measures to increase the supply of food such as vegetables and chicken,” said Mangaleswary. 

 

Mangaleswary suggests that the government give food suppliers some form of subsidy.

She said it was important to have control on prices of essential food items such as rice, sugar, flour, vegetables, fruits and chicken. To keep the supply chain going, she suggested that the government give suppliers some form of subsidy to help them overcome difficulties such as rise in price of chicken feed and transport cost.

“Of course, people must be reminded to be prudent and not to waste food,” she stressed.

Dr Richard Ng, president of NGO Ipoh City Watch, said although the country was transitioning into the Covid-19 endemic phase, the B40 folk in particular had little to cheer about. 

 

Ng says government assistance must reach
the target group on
a more consistent basis.

He said those who had been jobless might have heaved a huge sigh of relief as they would be able to earn a basic living.

He highlighted that a chain reaction had been triggered with the implementation of the minimum wage, the war between Russia and Ukraine taking a toll on the world’s economy, and the government’s announcement on the removal of subsidy on cooking oil and other essential items.

“These events have caused the prices of petrol, gas, cooking oil and essential food items to go up by at least 30%.

“This diminishing purchasing power not only impacts the B40 group, but also those in the M40.

“Each time such a crisis happens, the government can ask the people to tighten their belt, take less sugar, grow their own vegetables, provide one-off monetary assistance and groceries.

“But in reality, these efforts cannot really address the hard times faced by the people,” said Ng.

Instead, he said political leaders should set an example by going down to the ground and checking if the efforts made by them were effective.

He said government assistance must reach the target group on a more consistent basis, instead of just providing one-off aid.

“One way to solve this is to ensure some sort of prepaid card is given for the poor to buy groceries and other essential items from authorised outlets selling goods at lower prices.

“Of course, the mechanism must be monitored strictly to ensure there is no abuse and products sold must be of a certain minimum standard,” Ng added.

  • StarMetro By MANJIT KAUR manjit@thestar.com.my

Stretching their ringgit further 

 Like the rest of the nation, consumers in Ipoh, Perak, are feeling the pinch from the rise in the prices of goods, especially essential items.

The increase in prices is taking a toll on the people, leaving those in the low and middle-income groups struggling to cope. 

Joginder showing the brinjal growing in her garden.

Joginder showing the brinjal growing in her garden.Joginder showing the brinjal growing in her garden.

Retiree Joginder Kaur Jessy, 67, said she had started to grow some vegetables in her house compound to help cut cost of buying greens.

She said eating out had always been expensive but cooking at home was no longer cheap either.

Expressing dismay at the rise in the prices of oil, vegetables, fish, chicken and eggs, she felt it necessary to cut back on some items as she was a pensioner.

“I have to be more prudent now and use less ingredients when cooking.

“I will probably have to look for a cheaper type of fish, eat less chicken, try to cook smaller portions, avoid wastage and make leftover food stretch over a few days,” she said.

Among the vegetables and fruits that Joginder has planted are chillies, okra, brinjal, lemon, mint, banana and papaya.

“Most of the prices of vegetables, fish and other seafood have tripled.

“Some fishmongers and vegetable and fruit sellers have taken this opportunity to raise the prices even further,” she added.

Holly Lai, 60, a marketing manager, said that at times cooking at home was more expensive than eating out.

Lai, who is single, said she used to cook at home, but after the increase in prices, she discovered it was not worth the effort.

Preferring fish and eggs in her diet, she noted that the prices of these items were not affordable.

“For me to cook a meal consisting of fish, rice and a vegetable, it will easily cost about RM15, not including the spices and other ingredients.

“In comparison, I can get a meal consisting of three dishes and rice for between RM5 and RM7 from a stall.

“During these trying times, I must choose wisely and cannot simply eat at expensive restaurants,” she added.

Teacher Ambiga Pillay, 60, said the government should step in to counter the increase in prices.

Many including herself, she said, were saving on daily living costs by cooking more often as well as cutting back on luxury expenditures and travel.

“I always cook at home although it is a challenge as I work full-time.

“People think that grocery prices are lower in Ipoh compared to Kuala Lumpur, but it is not true.

“Prices here are higher because there is less variety compared to other places,” she said, adding that some also looked for cheaper alternatives to save money.

“I plan my finances based on priority as well,” said Ambiga. 

Ambiga says she cuts down on daily costs by cooking more often at home.

 

Family Wellness Club president P. Mangaleswary also noted that people had been complaining about the rising prices of essential items. 

 

Mangaleswary suggests that the government give food suppliers some form of subsidy.

She said some members of the non-governmental organisation (NGO) complained about how prices of vegetables had gone up in wet markets.

Members were saying that 1kg of tomatoes now cost RM9 when it used to be about RM5 before, she told StarMetro.

“Just last weekend at a get-together, some said they were feeling the burden of rising food prices as other expenses such as transport and house rental were also going up.

“The government’s cash aid for the B40 group is hardly enough for them to cover the rising costs.

“The government needs to look into some concrete measures to increase the supply of food such as vegetables and chicken,” said Mangaleswary.

She said it was important to have control on prices of essential food items such as rice, sugar, flour, vegetables, fruits and chicken. To keep the supply chain going, she suggested that the government give suppliers some form of subsidy to help them overcome difficulties such as rise in price of chicken feed and transport cost.

“Of course, people must be reminded to be prudent and not to waste food,” she stressed.

Dr Richard Ng, president of NGO Ipoh City Watch, said although the country was transitioning into the Covid-19 endemic phase, the B40 folk in particular had little to cheer about. 

 

He said those who had been jobless might have heaved a huge sigh of relief as they would be able to earn a basic living.

He highlighted that a chain reaction had been triggered with the implementation of the minimum wage, the war between Russia and Ukraine taking a toll on the world’s economy, and the government’s announcement on the removal of subsidy on cooking oil and other essential items.

“These events have caused the prices of petrol, gas, cooking oil and essential food items to go up by at least 30%.

“This diminishing purchasing power not only impacts the B40 group, but also those in the M40.

“Each time such a crisis happens, the government can ask the people to tighten their belt, take less sugar, grow their own vegetables, provide one-off monetary assistance and groceries.

“But in reality, these efforts cannot really address the hard times faced by the people,” said Ng.

Instead, he said political leaders should set an example by going down to the ground and checking if the efforts made by them were effective.

He said government assistance must reach the target group on a more consistent basis, instead of just providing one-off aid.

“One way to solve this is to ensure some sort of prepaid card is given for the poor to buy groceries and other essential items from authorised outlets selling goods at lower prices.

“Of course, the mechanism must be monitored strictly to ensure there is no abuse and products sold must be of a certain minimum standard,” Ng added. 

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Experts urge removal of US extra tariffs, Elimination of China tariffs will be key


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Expert: U.S. is damaging itself for putting tariffs on China

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Removing additional tariffs on Chinese goods will significantly ease the pressure on companies in both China and the United States, and help the world to curb inflation, experts said on Wednesday (May 4).

Their remarks followed the Office of the United States Trade Representative, or USTR, announcement on Tuesday of the commencement of the statutory four-year review of the continuation of the US “Section 301” tariffs on Chinese products.

In the four-year review, the USTR will examine the tariff actions on Chinese-origin products from July 6, 2018 to Aug 23, 2018.

Based on this review, the US government can determine whether to maintain the tariffs, change the tariff rates, or remove the tariffs.

In the first quarter of this year, China-US trade grew 12 percent year-on-year to $185.92 billion, data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed.

According to Tu Xinquan, dean of the China Institute for WTO Studies at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, the additional US tariffs on Chinese products have put heavy burdens on US companies and aggravated inflation levels in the country.

In the US, many businesses involved in trade have been seeking rollback of the additional tariffs on Chinese products.

Besides, many of the tariffs were levied through administrative orders rather than being based on relevant laws. This led to a series of complaints and lawsuits that challenged the authority of those orders issued by the former administration, he said.

In the two-step review process, the first step is for the USTR to offer an opportunity for US domestic industries that benefited from the tariffs to request their continuation. Legally, the tariffs are to terminate four years after their application, if no US party submits a request that they be continued.

If there are requests to continue, the tariffs are received, under the statute the following step requires the USTR to undertake a review of the effectiveness of the “Section 301” tariffs on achieving their objectives and their impact on the US economy and consumers.

Cancelling the additional tariffs on Chinese products will also help many parts of the world to curb inflation, because stable product and commodity supplies from China and the US – the world’s two largest economies – will facilitate the world to build strong industrial and supply chains, said Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist with the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.

As the US dollar is a global currency, the increase in its supply, which far outpaced that of other global currencies like the euro, directly pushed up prices in the US, besides fueling inflation worldwide, which has been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he noted.

Amid global inflation and growing pressures on the global supply chain, tariffs have become an inconvenient factor that inhibits enterprises from conducting international trade cooperation, said Zhou Mi, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation in Beijing.

China and the US, he said, should not only remove additional tariffs imposed during their trade disputes, but even further reduce tariffs to make them even lower than the pre-dispute levels. That will significantly boost expectations on normal global supply chain operations, bolster market confidence and facilitate global economic recovery.

“As the world’s two largest economies, healthy bilateral relations between China and the US are important not only to them but the world, as the global economy has been facing a number of uncertainties in recent years,” he said.

Woody Guo, president for China unit at Herbalife Nutrition, a US-based manufacturer of nutrition products, said it is beneficial for China and the US to enhance their ties in the area of trade and economic cooperation.

“In China, consumption upgrade and domestic demand expansion will help the country to grow its consumer base under the dual-circulation development paradigm, providing huge growth potential for foreign enterprises, including Herbalife Nutrition,” Guo said. 

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Elimination of China tariffs will be key 

Easing restrictions: The US and Chinese flags outside a hotel in Beijing. American tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese imports are due to expire in July, but could be extended if enough industries ask for an extension. — AFP

WASHINGTON: The United States government should eliminate or at least reduce additional tariffs on Chinese imports imposed during the Trump administration, a US trade expert says, arguing that such trade liberalisation measures will help lower elevated inflation and stabilise inflation expectations.

“Here, we’re running a red hot economy. So anything you can do to reduce that cycle is good news,” Gary Hufbauer, non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), told Xinhua in a recent phone interview.

In a research published on PIIE’s website, Hufbauer and his colleagues Megan Hogan and Yilin Wang argued that “a feasible trade liberalisation package” could deliver a one-time reduction in consumer price index (CPI) inflation of around 1.3 percentage points. That would save US$797 (RM3,467) for every US household.

He said the direct effect of eliminating additional tariffs on Chinese products would be a 0.3 percentage point reduction in the CPI, but there would also be indirect effect, which will add “substantially” to the 0.3 percentage point.

“It would be a pretty big signal to US firms that they are going to face more competition and that might cause them to moderate their price increases as inflation rolls forward,” said the long time trade expert.

“We’re in a world now where inflation expectations are really quite high,” Hufbauer said, noting that US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hikes would have some effect on inflation expectations, and trade liberalisation measures “would have an additional effect.”

Stabilising inflation expectations is important, he said, because when expectations are that inflation is going to continue, “that then feeds into wage demands and that then keeps the cycle going.”

According to the latest data from the US Labour Department, the CPI in March surged 8.5% from a year earlier, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981. That followed a 7.9% year-on-year gain in February.

US personal consumption expenditures price indexes, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, soared by 6.6% in March over the past year, the Commerce Department reported on Friday.

In reaction to the argument that reducing the China tariffs would not lead to a meaningful reduction in prices, Hufbauer said it doesn’t completely eliminate the inflation problem, “but it’s better than doing nothing.”

“So there’s raising interest rates, there’s cutting back federal spending, there’s reducing tariffs, all of those things have some impact,” he said. “I would say it’s something where every little bit counts.”

Regarding the current political environment, Hufbauer said he thinks it will be difficult for the administration to reduce or eliminate additional tariffs on Chinese imports before the mid-term elections, but he hopes that it will do that.

The trade expert said he is “very encouraged” by a recent statement by Deputy National Security Adviser Daleep Singh, who said the Biden administration could lower tariffs on non-strategic Chinese goods such as bicycles or apparel to help curb inflation.Hufbauer noted that the Biden administration could be reluctant to remove the Trump-era tariffs, because it would have to face criticism for being “soft” on China.

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